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Explaining Cost Overruns of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects using a Signalling Game

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  • Chantal C. Cantarelli
  • Caspar G. Chorus
  • Scott W. Cunningham

Abstract

Strategic behaviour is one of the main explanations for cost overruns. It can theoretically be supported by agency theory, in which strategic behaviour is the result of asymmetric information between the principal and agent. This paper gives a formal account of this relation by a signalling game. This is a game with incomplete information which considers the way in which parties anticipate upon other parties' behaviour in choosing a course of action. The game shows how cost overruns are the result of an inappropriate signal. This makes it impossible for the principal to distinguish between the types of agents, and hence, allows for strategic behaviour. It is illustrated how cost overruns can be avoided by means of two policy measures, e.g. an accountability structure and benchmarking.

Suggested Citation

  • Chantal C. Cantarelli & Caspar G. Chorus & Scott W. Cunningham, 2013. "Explaining Cost Overruns of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects using a Signalling Game," Papers 1307.2180, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1307.2180
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. I.P.L. P'ng, 1983. "Strategic Behavior in Suit, Settlement, and Trial," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 539-550, Autumn.
    2. Flyvbjerg,Bent & Bruzelius,Nils & Rothengatter,Werner, 2003. "Megaprojects and Risk," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521009461.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brunes, Fredrik & Lind, Hans, 2014. "Explaining cost overruns in infrastructural projects: A new framework with applications to Sweden," Working Paper Series 14/1, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    2. Bekius, Femke & Meijer, Sebastiaan & de Bruijn, Hans, 2018. "Collaboration patterns in the Dutch railway sector: Using game concepts to compare different outcomes in a unique development case," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 360-368.
    3. Gutiérrez-Hita, Carlos & de la Cruz, Omar & Ramos-Melero, Rodolfo, 2022. "Infrastructure access charges, service differentiation, and strategic competition in the EU railway passenger market," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 87-104.
    4. Zeng, Nengmin & Wu, Guangdong & Zeng, Dongling & Liu, Ang & Ren, Tinghai & Liu, Bingsheng, 2023. "Optimal mechanism for project splitting with time cost and asymmetric information," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    5. Femke Bekius & Sebastiaan Meijer & Hugo Thomassen, 2022. "A Real Case Application of Game Theoretical Concepts in a Complex Decision-Making Process: Case Study ERTMS," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 153-185, February.
    6. Ivona Ivić & Anita Cerić, 2023. "Risks Caused by Information Asymmetry in Construction Projects: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-25, June.

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