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The Food Crises: A quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol conversion

Author

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  • Marco Lagi
  • Yavni Bar-Yam
  • Karla Z. Bertrand
  • Yaneer Bar-Yam

Abstract

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, while an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes---deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Lagi & Yavni Bar-Yam & Karla Z. Bertrand & Yaneer Bar-Yam, 2011. "The Food Crises: A quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol conversion," Papers 1109.4859, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1109.4859
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dion Harmon & Marco Lagi & Marcus A M de Aguiar & David D Chinellato & Dan Braha & Irving R Epstein & Yaneer Bar-Yam, 2015. "Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-27, July.
    2. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    3. Bernhard Troester, 2012. "The determinants of the recent food price surges – A basic supply and demand model," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1206, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    4. Baines, Joseph, 2015. "Price and Income Dynamics in the Agri-Food System: A Disaggregate Perspective," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 157992, June.
    5. Sean Field, 2016. "The financialization of food and the 2008–2011 food price spikes," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 48(11), pages 2272-2290, November.
    6. Baines, Joseph, 2014. "Food Price Inflation as Redistribution: Towards a New Analysis of Corporate Power in the World Food System (Preprint)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 79-112.
    7. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    8. Jessica Clendenning & Wolfram Dressler & Carol Richards, 2016. "Food justice or food sovereignty? Understanding the rise of urban food movements in the USA," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 33(1), pages 165-177, March.
    9. Singh, Pritam & Singh, Nadia, 2019. "Political economy of bioenergy transitions in developing countries: A case study of Punjab, India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Baines, Joseph, 2014. "The Ethanol Boom and the Restructuring of the Food Regime," Working Papers on Capital as Power 2014/03, Capital As Power - Toward a New Cosmology of Capitalism.
    11. Baines, Joseph, 2015. "Fuel, Feed and the Corporate Restructuring of the Food Regime," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 295-321.
    12. Anna Szczepanska-Przekota, 2020. "Conditions of Agriculture Compared to Economic Growth in Selected Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 693-707.
    13. Sophie van Huellen, 2020. "Approaches To Price Formation In Financialized Commodity Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 219-237, February.
    14. Aled Jones & Bradley Hiller, 2017. "Exploring the Dynamics of Responses to Food Production Shocks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-12, June.
    15. Timothy A. Wise, 2012. "The Cost to Mexico of U.S. Corn Ethanol Expansion," GDAE Working Papers 12-01, GDAE, Tufts University.
    16. von Braun, Joachim & Tadesse, Getaw, 2012. "Global Food Price Volatility and Spikes: An Overview of Costs, Causes, and Solutions," Discussion Papers 120021, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    17. Aleksandar S. Jovanović & P. Klimek & Flor A. Quintero, 2015. "Forecast for the use of alternative fuels in aviation under environmental constraints and volatile market conditions," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 521-531, December.

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