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Forecast for the use of alternative fuels in aviation under environmental constraints and volatile market conditions

Author

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  • Aleksandar S. Jovanović

    (Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies – R-Tech
    European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management)

  • P. Klimek

    (European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management
    Medical University of Vienna)

  • Flor A. Quintero

    (Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies – R-Tech)

Abstract

In a context of volatility in the oil price and with the impact of fossil fuels on climate change, the sustainable growth of the aviation is conditioned by the environment, economy and technical efficiency. In order to overcome these issues, new alternative fuels and biofuels could be an alternative to established technologies. In this study, a dynamical competition model for aviation fuel substitution has been developed. Investment and market factors are modeled by the Lotka–Volterra dynamical system for the substitution of fossil by alternative fuels. The model calculates the dynamics of Jet A-1, gas-to-liquid (GtL)/coal-to-liquid (CtL) and biomass-to-liquid (BtL) market shares up to the year 2030. In particular, the model looks at the use of carbon capture sequestration for GtL/CtL and the indirect land use change for BtL. Three main scenarios (high/low environmental incentives and business as usual) based on input data provided by the partners of the FP7 Alfa-Bird Project (2012) consortium were developed in 2012, and according to these scenarios, alternative fuels appeared to be competitive in the near term. Current collapse in oil prices, however, removes one of the key drivers that supported alternative fuel development in recent years: energy scarcity and security concerns, and as a consequence, it delays in this way the competitiveness of alternative fuels with respect to Jet A-1. This has been quantified in the present paper, and the respective conclusions were drawn.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandar S. Jovanović & P. Klimek & Flor A. Quintero, 2015. "Forecast for the use of alternative fuels in aviation under environmental constraints and volatile market conditions," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 521-531, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:35:y:2015:i:4:d:10.1007_s10669-015-9573-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-015-9573-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Z. A. Collier & J. H. Lambert & I. Linkov, 2015. "Application of systems modeling and risk assessment to address real-world decision-making challenges," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 425-426, December.
    2. Vedant Singh, 2016. "Perceptions of emission reduction potential in air transport: a structural equation modeling approach," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 377-403, December.

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