IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aoz/wpaper/247.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Individualized Conformal

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Delbianco

    (Universidad Nacional del Sur/CONICET)

  • Fernando Tohmé

    (Universidad Nacional del Sur/CONICET)

Abstract

The problem of individualized prediction can be addressed using variants of conformal prediction, obtaining the intervals to which the actual values of the variables of interest belong. Here we present a method based on detecting the observations that may be relevant for a given question and then using simulated controls to yield the intervals for the predicted values. This method is shown to be adaptive and able to detect the presence of latent relevant variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Delbianco & Fernando Tohmé, 2023. "Individualized Conformal," Working Papers 247, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:247
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rednie.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/DT/247.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Min-ge Xie & Kesar Singh, 2013. "Confidence Distribution, the Frequentist Distribution Estimator of a Parameter: A Review," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 3-39, April.
    2. Kuhn, Max, 2008. "Building Predictive Models in R Using the caret Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 28(i05).
    3. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2016. "Double/Debiased Machine Learning for Treatment and Causal Parameters," Papers 1608.00060, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    4. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    5. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey, 2017. "Double/Debiased/Neyman Machine Learning of Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 261-265, May.
    6. Jing Lei & Max G’Sell & Alessandro Rinaldo & Ryan J. Tibshirani & Larry Wasserman, 2018. "Distribution-Free Predictive Inference for Regression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(523), pages 1094-1111, July.
    7. Xinran Li & Xiao-Li Meng, 2021. "A Multi-resolution Theory for Approximating Infinite-p-Zero-n: Transitional Inference, Individualized Predictions, and a World Without Bias-Variance Tradeoff," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(533), pages 353-367, January.
    8. Jieli Shen & Regina Y. Liu & Min-ge Xie, 2020. "iFusion: Individualized Fusion Learning," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1251-1267, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ganesh Karapakula, 2023. "Stable Probability Weighting: Large-Sample and Finite-Sample Estimation and Inference Methods for Heterogeneous Causal Effects of Multivalued Treatments Under Limited Overlap," Papers 2301.05703, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    2. Madadkhani, Shiva & Ikonnikova, Svetlana, 2024. "Toward high-resolution projection of electricity prices: A machine learning approach to quantifying the effects of high fuel and CO2 prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Zhao, Jun, 2020. "Doubly robust difference-in-differences estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 101-122.
    4. Ruoxuan Xiong & Allison Koenecke & Michael Powell & Zhu Shen & Joshua T. Vogelstein & Susan Athey, 2021. "Federated Causal Inference in Heterogeneous Observational Data," Papers 2107.11732, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    5. Yoganathan, Vignesh & Osburg, Victoria-Sophie, 2024. "The mind in the machine: Estimating mind perception's effect on user satisfaction with voice-based conversational agents," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Maximilian Maurice Gail & Phil-Adrian Klotz, 2021. "The Impact of the Agency Model on E-book Prices: Evidence from the UK," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202111, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Jong Hee Park & Byung Koo Kim, 2020. "Why your neighbor matters: Positions in preferential trade agreement networks and export growth in global value chains," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 381-410, November.
    8. Ziwei Cong & Jia Liu & Puneet Manchanda, 2021. "The Role of "Live" in Livestreaming Markets: Evidence Using Orthogonal Random Forest," Papers 2107.01629, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    9. Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W. & Metzger, Jonas & Munro, Evan, 2024. "Using Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks for the design of Monte Carlo simulations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(2).
    10. Miquel Oliu-Barton & Bary S. R. Pradelski & Nicolas Woloszko & Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud & Philippe Aghion & Patrick Artus & Arnaud Fontanet & Philippe Martin & Guntram B. Wolff, 2022. "The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Waverly Wei & Maya Petersen & Mark J van der Laan & Zeyu Zheng & Chong Wu & Jingshen Wang, 2023. "Efficient targeted learning of heterogeneous treatment effects for multiple subgroups," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 1934-1946, September.
    12. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2021. "Problems with the Control Variable Approach in Achieving Unbiased Estimates in Nonlinear Models in the Presence of Many Instruments," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 39-58, December.
    13. Wang, Hongning & Ma, Sanjun, 2022. "Preventing crimes against public health with artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Monica Andini & Emanuele Ciani & Guido de Blasio & Alessio D'Ignazio & Viola Salvestrini, 2017. "Targeting policy-compliers with machine learning: an application to a tax rebate programme in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1158, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Hirofumi Fukuyama & Mike Tsionas & Yong Tan, 2024. "Incorporating causal modeling into data envelopment analysis for performance evaluation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 342(3), pages 1865-1904, November.
    16. Francesco Decarolis & Cristina Giorgiantonio, 2020. "Corruption red flags in public procurement: new evidence from Italian calls for tenders," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Hoang, Daniel & Wiegratz, Kevin, 2022. "Machine learning methods in finance: Recent applications and prospects," Working Paper Series in Economics 158, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    18. Huber Martin & Wüthrich Kaspar, 2019. "Local Average and Quantile Treatment Effects Under Endogeneity: A Review," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, January.
    19. Valente, Marica, 2023. "Policy evaluation of waste pricing programs using heterogeneous causal effect estimation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    20. Anna Baiardi & Andrea A. Naghi, 2021. "The Value Added of Machine Learning to Causal Inference: Evidence from Revisited Studies," Papers 2101.00878, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conformal Prediction; Individualized Inference; Split and Jacknife Distribution-Free Inference.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laura Inés D Amato (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/redniar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.