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Could The Exchange Rate Regime Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility?

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  • Diego Bastourre
  • Jorge Carrera

Abstract

This study intends to determine the kind of relationship existing between the exchange rate regime and real volatility. After carefully revising theoretical and empirical results of previous research, a new methodology is proposed that corrects deficiencies found in previous empirical papers. The results show non-neutrality of the exchange rate regime. Particularly, it is found that the more rigid the regime, the greater the real volatility. Even when a classification of the exchange rate regime is performed allowing a comparison between consistent pegging and consistent floating, the former has a higher volatility. Countries with "fear of floating" or "inability of pegging" behavior exhibit lower volatility than consistent pegs.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera, 2004. "Could The Exchange Rate Regime Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility?," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 067, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:067
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain, 2022. "External constraint and procyclicality of monetary policy of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC)," MPRA Paper 116375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Saadet Kasman & Duygu Ayhan, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 6(2), pages 37-58.
    4. Barbaros Güneri & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2021. "Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, July.
    5. Petreski, Marjan, 2009. "Analysis of exchange-rate regime effect on growth: theoretical channels and empirical evidence with panel data," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-49, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Albuquerque, Christiane Rocha & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2006. "Testing Nonlinearities between Brazilian Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatilities," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 60(4), February.
    7. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.
    8. Kadia Besart, 2015. "†Fear of Floating†in Albania and Economic Growth," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(56), pages 19-32, June,.
    9. Esaka, Taro, 2014. "Are consistent pegs really more prone to currency crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 136-163.
    10. Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2010. "Structural breaks in volatility: Evidence for the OECD and non-OECD real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 139-168, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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