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Aspectos Dinâmicos De Um Sistema De Metas Sociais

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  • Marcelo Côrtes Neri
  • Marcelo Casal Xerez

Abstract

The present paper develops variants of a system of social targets departing from principal-agent models incorporating different possibilities of renegotiation across time periods, as well as the presence of shocks. This system acts as a way for the federal government to increase efficiency in the use of its social budget transferred to municipalities.We demonstrate in a dynamic context with complete contracts that the best way to increase allocative efficiency in funds transfers would be to create institutional mechanisms denying the possibility of bilateral renegotiations. This optimum contract reproduces sequence targets and transfers found in the solution of the static model for various periods. However, this result disappears when we incorporate incomplete contracts. In this case, ex-ante inefficiencies created by the possibility of renegotiation must be weighted against ex-post inefficiencies created by not using the disclosed new information along of process.In the second part of the paper we incorporate the incidence of random shocks. We show that, when the social results do not depend only on the investments carried through by the municipality, but also random factors, the contract established between federal government and municipalities, must stipulate higher social targets to compensate the occurrence of bad states of the nature. Moreover, in this kind of situation, linear contracts are pro-cyclical, reducing governmental transfers exactly when the municipality suffers a negative shock. To avoid this type of situation, we show that the establishment of contracts that use mechanisms of comparison of performance between the municipalities eliminates the pro-cyclical effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Côrtes Neri & Marcelo Casal Xerez, 2004. "Aspectos Dinâmicos De Um Sistema De Metas Sociais," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 055, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Neri, Marcelo Côrtes & Xerez, Marcelo, 2003. "Desenho de um sistema de metas sociais," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 519, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. Gelbach, Jonath B. & Pritchett, Lant H., 1997. "More for the poor is less for the poor : the politics of targeting," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1799, The World Bank.
    6. Jean-Jacques Laffont & Jean Tirole, 1993. "A Theory of Incentives in Procurement and Regulation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121743, April.
    7. Mathias Dewatripont, 1989. "Renegotiation and Information Revelation Over Time: The Case of Optimal Labor Contracts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(3), pages 589-619.
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    Cited by:

    1. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão, 2004. "On the use (fulness) of CGE modelling in trade negotiations and policy," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 564, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. Buchmann, Gabriel & Neri, Marcelo Côrtes, 2008. "From dakar to Brasilia: monitoring unesco´s education goals," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 685, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).

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