IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/anc/wpaper/407.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does export complexity matter for firms' output volatility?

Author

Listed:
  • Daniela MAGGIONI

    (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali)

  • Alessia LO TURCO

    (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali)

  • Mauro GALLEGATI

    (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali)

Abstract

With this paper we provide, for the first time to our knowledge, micro-level evidence on the negative linkage between firm complexity and volatility. A higher sophistication level of a firm's export basket reduces its output fluctuations. When focusing on a sample of exporting and non exporting firms, the average complexity of the production mix equally affects stability of sales of both groups. The stabilising role of firms' production sophistication is driven by complex products' higher income elasticity, technological diversification and market entry barriers.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela MAGGIONI & Alessia LO TURCO & Mauro GALLEGATI, 2014. "Does export complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Working Papers 407, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    • Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:407
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://docs.dises.univpm.it/web/quaderni/pdf/407.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    3. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    4. Poncet, Sandra & Starosta de Waldemar, Felipe, 2013. "Export Upgrading and Growth: The Prerequisite of Domestic Embeddedness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 104-118.
    5. Markusen, James & Fally, Thibault & Caron, Justin, 2012. "Skill Premium and Trade Puzzles: A Solution Linking Production and Preferences," CEPR Discussion Papers 8999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    7. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2012. "The Risk Content of Exports: A Portfolio View of International Trade," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 97-151.
    8. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    10. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
    11. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2013. "Technological Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 378-414, February.
    12. Andrei A. Levchenko, 2007. "Institutional Quality and International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(3), pages 791-819.
    13. García-Vega, María & Guariglia, Alessandra & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza, 2012. "Volatility, financial constraints, and trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-76.
    14. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(6), pages 1300-1333, December.
    15. Costinot, Arnaud, 2009. "On the origins of comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 255-264, April.
    16. Kalina Manova & Zhiwei Zhang, 2012. "Export Prices Across Firms and Destinations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 379-436.
    17. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    18. Nathan Nunn, 2007. "Relationship-Specificity, Incomplete Contracts, and the Pattern of Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 569-600.
    19. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    20. Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2006. "Product quality and the direction of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 238-265, January.
    21. Mr. Marco Terrones & Mr. Eswar S Prasad & Mr. Ayhan Kose, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 2003/050, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    23. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent Sorensen & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Deep Financial Integration And Volatility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1558-1585, December.
    24. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
    25. Barrientos, Stephanie. & Kabeer, Naila. & Hossain, Naomi., 2004. "The gender dimensions of the globalization of production," ILO Working Papers 993701183402676, International Labour Organization.
    26. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    27. Shu-Chin Lin & Dong-Hyeon Kim, 2014. "The link between economic growth and growth volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 43-63, February.
    28. Cesar A. Hidalgo, 2009. "The Dynamics of Economic Complexity and the Product Space over a 42 year period," CID Working Papers 189, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    29. Krishna, Pravin & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2013. "Comparative advantage, complexity, and volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 314-329.
    30. Marc J. Melitz & Giancarlo I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 4, pages 87-108, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    31. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    32. repec:ilo:ilowps:370118 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Loayza, Norman, 2004. "Volatility and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184, The World Bank.
    34. Ricardo Hausmann & César Hidalgo, 2011. "The network structure of economic output," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 309-342, December.
    35. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2008. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity (DOI:10.111/j.1467-937x.2007.00463.x)," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 985-985.
    36. Ana Cecília Fieler, 2011. "Nonhomotheticity and Bilateral Trade: Evidence and a Quantitative Explanation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1069-1101, July.
    37. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    38. Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn & Bacate, Marife, 2012. "Product complexity and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 36-68.
    39. Timur Kuran, 1997. "Islam and Underdevelopment: An Old Puzzle Revisited," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 153(1), pages 1-41, March.
    40. Sutton, John, 2002. "The variance of firm growth rates: the ‘scaling’ puzzle," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 577-590.
    41. Stefan C. Norrbin & F. Pinar Yigit, 2005. "The Robustness of the Link between Volatility and Growth of Output," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(2), pages 343-356, July.
    42. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10147 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis, 2014. "International Prices and Endogenous Quality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 477-527.
    44. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2012. "Country Size, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1083-1132.
    45. Blattman, Christopher & Hwang, Jason & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2007. "Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 156-179, January.
    46. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela, 2014. "The micro evolution of trade and turnover in Turkey under the global crisis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 397-414.
    47. Paul J. Irvine & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2009. "Idiosyncratic Return Volatility, Cash Flows, and Product Market Competition," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1149-1177, March.
    48. Vannoorenberghe, G., 2012. "Firm-level volatility and exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 57-67.
    49. Paul J. Irvine & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2009. "Idiosyncratic Return Volatility, Cash Flows, and Product Market Competition," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1149-1177.
    50. Robert J. Barro & Rachel McCleary, 2003. "Religion and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Harald Strotmann, 2009. "Does Export Openness Increase Firm‐level Output Volatility?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 531-551, April.
    52. Thierry Mayer & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2008. "The Happy Few: The Internationalisation of European Firms," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 43(3), pages 135-148, May.
    53. Tacchella, A. & Cristelli, M. & Caldarelli, G. & Gabrielli, A. & Pietronero, L., 2013. "Economic complexity: Conceptual grounding of a new metrics for global competitiveness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1683-1691.
    54. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10147 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Can, Muhlis & Gozgor, Giray, 2016. "Dynamic Relationships among CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and Economic Complexity in France," MPRA Paper 70373, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maggioni, Daniela & Lo Turco, Alessia & Gallegati, Mauro, 2016. "Does product complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 94-109.
    2. Fontanelli, Luca & Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro, 2023. "International trade and technological competition in markets with dynamic increasing returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Urška Čede & Bogdan Chiriacescu & Péter Harasztosi & Tibor Lalinsky & Jaanika Meriküll, 2018. "Export characteristics and output volatility: comparative firm-level evidence for CEE countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(2), pages 347-376, May.
    4. Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague & Wang, Zheng & Yu, Zhihong, 2016. "Volatility and diversification of exports: Firm-level theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 216-247.
    5. Norbert Czinkán, 2017. "The Role of Individual Firms in Aggregate Fluctuations: Evidence from Hungary," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(2), pages 40-63.
    6. Kramarz, Francis & Martin, Julien & Mejean, Isabelle, 2020. "Volatility in the small and in the large: The lack of diversification in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Kurz, Christopher & Senses, Mine Z., 2016. "Importing, exporting, and firm-level employment volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-175.
    8. Joya, Omar & Rougier, Eric, 2019. "Do (all) sectoral shocks lead to aggregate volatility? Empirics from a production network perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 77-107.
    9. Krishna, Pravin & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2013. "Comparative advantage, complexity, and volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 314-329.
    10. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2012. "The Empirics of Firm Heterogeneity and International Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 283-313, July.
    11. Lee, Iona Hyojung, 2018. "Industrial output fluctuations in developing countries: General equilibrium consequences of agricultural productivity shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 240-279.
    12. Jorge Miranda Pinto, 2021. "Production Network Structure, Service Share, and Aggregate Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 146-173, January.
    13. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2022. "Markups, quality, and trade costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. Bahar, Dany & Rosenow, Samuel & Stein, Ernesto & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2019. "Export take-offs and acceleration: Unpacking cross-sector linkages in the evolution of comparative advantage," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 48-60.
    15. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    16. Brambilla, Irene & Porto, Guido G., 2016. "High-income export destinations, quality and wages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 21-35.
    17. Paulo Bastos & Daniel A. Dias & Olga A. Timoshenko, 2018. "Learning, prices and firm dynamics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(4), pages 1257-1311, November.
    18. Paula Garda & Volker Ziemann, 2014. "Economic Policies and Microeconomic Stability: A Literature Review and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1115, OECD Publishing.
    19. Bailey, Michael & Gupta, Abhinav & Hillenbrand, Sebastian & Kuchler, Theresa & Richmond, Robert & Stroebel, Johannes, 2021. "International trade and social connectedness," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    20. Andrei A. Levchenko & Julian di Giovanni, 2009. "International Trade and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies," 2009 Meeting Papers 491, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capabilities; Demand and supply channels; Output fluctuations; Product Sophistication;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maurizio Mariotti (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deancit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.