IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v121y2016icp94-109.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does product complexity matter for firms' output volatility?

Author

Listed:
  • Maggioni, Daniela
  • Lo Turco, Alessia
  • Gallegati, Mauro

Abstract

With this paper we provide the first micro-level evidence on the linkage between firm complexity and volatility. By defining product complexity à la Hausmann and Hidalgo (2009), we find that a higher complexity level of a firm's product basket is associated to a reduction of its output fluctuations. This evidence is robust to the control for omitted variables, sample selection, and to the use of alternative volatility and complexity indicators. Across similar firms, active in different sectors and regions, both technological factors and product market conditions explain the effect of complexity on volatility. However, within narrowly defined sectors and locations, the complexity–volatility nexus fully reflects the role of the human capital content of firms' product baskets.

Suggested Citation

  • Maggioni, Daniela & Lo Turco, Alessia & Gallegati, Mauro, 2016. "Does product complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 94-109.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:121:y:2016:i:c:p:94-109
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.03.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387816300165
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.03.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    2. Sandra Poncet & Felipe Starosta, 2013. "Export upgrading and growth in China: the prerequisite of domestic embeddedness," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS halshs-00960684, HAL.
    3. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2012. "The Risk Content of Exports: A Portfolio View of International Trade," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 97-151.
    4. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2013. "Technological Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 378-414, February.
    5. Andrei A. Levchenko, 2007. "Institutional Quality and International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(3), pages 791-819.
    6. García-Vega, María & Guariglia, Alessandra & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza, 2012. "Volatility, financial constraints, and trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-76.
    7. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(6), pages 1300-1333, December.
    8. Costinot, Arnaud, 2009. "On the origins of comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 255-264, April.
    9. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy, 1994. "The Division of Labor, Coordination Costs, and Knowledge," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 299-322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Olivier Cadot & Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2011. "Export Diversification: What's behind the Hump?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 590-605, May.
    11. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    12. Nathan Nunn, 2007. "Relationship-Specificity, Incomplete Contracts, and the Pattern of Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 569-600.
    13. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    14. Jean Imbs & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Stages of Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 63-86, March.
    15. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Loayza, Norman, 2004. "Volatility and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184, The World Bank.
    16. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    17. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "What's So Special about China's Exports?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, September.
    18. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent Sorensen & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Deep Financial Integration And Volatility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1558-1585, December.
    19. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    20. Poncet, Sandra & Starosta de Waldemar, Felipe, 2013. "Export Upgrading and Growth: The Prerequisite of Domestic Embeddedness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 104-118.
    21. Fernandes, Ana M. & Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2016. "Exporter behavior, country size and stage of development: Evidence from the exporter dynamics database," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 121-137.
    22. Sutton, John, 2002. "The variance of firm growth rates: the ‘scaling’ puzzle," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 577-590.
    23. Krishna, Pravin & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2013. "Comparative advantage, complexity, and volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 314-329.
    24. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2012. "Country Size, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1083-1132.
    25. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    26. Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2006. "Product quality and the direction of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 238-265, January.
    27. Shu-Chin Lin & Dong-Hyeon Kim, 2014. "The link between economic growth and growth volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 43-63, February.
    28. Cesar A. Hidalgo, 2009. "The Dynamics of Economic Complexity and the Product Space over a 42 year period," CID Working Papers 189, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    29. Volker Nocke & Stephen Yeaple, 2006. "Globalization and Endogenous Firm Scope," NBER Working Papers 12322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Stefan C. Norrbin & F. Pinar Yigit, 2005. "The Robustness of the Link between Volatility and Growth of Output," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(2), pages 343-356, July.
    31. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela, 2014. "The micro evolution of trade and turnover in Turkey under the global crisis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 397-414.
    32. Paul J. Irvine & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2009. "Idiosyncratic Return Volatility, Cash Flows, and Product Market Competition," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1149-1177, March.
    33. Vannoorenberghe, G., 2012. "Firm-level volatility and exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 57-67.
    34. Paul J. Irvine & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2009. "Idiosyncratic Return Volatility, Cash Flows, and Product Market Competition," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1149-1177.
    35. Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Harald Strotmann, 2009. "Does Export Openness Increase Firm‐level Output Volatility?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 531-551, April.
    36. Tacchella, A. & Cristelli, M. & Caldarelli, G. & Gabrielli, A. & Pietronero, L., 2013. "Economic complexity: Conceptual grounding of a new metrics for global competitiveness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1683-1691.
    37. Miho Shirotori & Bolormaa Tumurchudur & Olivier Cadot, 2010. "Revealed Factor Intensity Indices at the Product Level," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 44, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "The Quality of Aid for Trade Flows and Economic Complexity," EconStor Preprints 271538, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar M., 2023. "Does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Bucci, Alberto & Carbonari, Lorenzo & Trovato, Giovanni, 2021. "Variety, Competition, And Population In Economic Growth: Theory And Empirics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1303-1330, July.
    4. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the utilization of non-reciprocal trade preferences offered by the QUAD countries on beneficiary countries' economic complexity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    6. Xiaoping Li & Shuzhou Peng & Wei‐Chiao Huang & Qian Zhou, 2022. "What Drives Chinese Firms' Export Sophistication? A Perspective from the Rise of Minimum Wages," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(2), pages 28-59, March.
    7. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Aid for trade and inflation: Exploring the trade openness, export product diversification and foreign direct investment channels," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 563-593, December.
    8. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar, 2024. "Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13393, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Brice Kamguia & Sosson Tadadjeu & Clovis Miamo & Henri Njangang, 2022. "Does foreign aid impede economic complexity in developing countries?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 71-88.
    10. Trinh, Vu Quang & Nguyen, Anh Thi Quynh & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Export quality upgrading and environmental sustainability: Evidence from the East Asia and Pacific Region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Saafi Sami & Nouira Ridha, 2018. "Re-Examining the Relationship Between Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: Is there a Threshold Effect?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(4), pages 437-454.
    12. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Do unilateral trade preferences help reduce poverty in beneficiary countries?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 249-288, February.
    13. Sena KIMM Gnangnon, 2020. "Export Product Diversification and Fiscal Space Volatility in Developing Countries: Exploring the Economic Growth Volatility Channel," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 1837-1854.
    14. Guan, Shu & Cheng, Liwei, 2020. "Does product complexity matter for firms' TFP?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    15. Giacomo Domini, 2019. "Patterns of specialisation and economic complexity through the lens of universal exhibitions, 1855-1900," LEM Papers Series 2019/20, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    16. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Export product diversification and tax performance quality in developing countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 849-876, October.
    17. Barbaros Güneri & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2021. "Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, July.
    18. Hua Zhou & Jiachen Fan, 2023. "Export structure, import demand elasticity and export stability," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 758-790, March.
    19. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2023. "Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity: Machine Learning Insights on Causality and Prediction," IREA Working Papers 202315, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2023.
    20. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on economic growth volatility," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 448-467.
    21. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2024. "The quality of Aid for Trade flows and economic complexity," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 705-747, October.
    22. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the Duration of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Human Development in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 265061, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    23. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Do Unilateral Trade Preferences Help Reduce Poverty in Beneficiary Countries?," EconStor Preprints 247346, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    24. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Economic complexity and poverty in developing countries," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 416-429, October.
    25. Taylan Yenilmez, 2024. "Finding the right products for export diversification," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 151-167, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniela MAGGIONI & Alessia LO TURCO & Mauro GALLEGATI, 2014. "Does export complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Working Papers 407, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Krishna, Pravin & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2013. "Comparative advantage, complexity, and volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 314-329.
    3. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    4. Daruich, Diego & Easterly, William & Reshef, Ariell, 2019. "The surprising instability of export specializations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 36-65.
    5. Ulrich Schetter, 2019. "A Structural Ranking of Economic Complexity," Growth Lab Working Papers 148, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    6. Kurz, Christopher & Senses, Mine Z., 2016. "Importing, exporting, and firm-level employment volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-175.
    7. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).
    8. Bahar, Dany & Rosenow, Samuel & Stein, Ernesto & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2019. "Export take-offs and acceleration: Unpacking cross-sector linkages in the evolution of comparative advantage," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 48-60.
    9. Poncet, Sandra & Starosta de Waldemar, Felipe, 2013. "Export Upgrading and Growth: The Prerequisite of Domestic Embeddedness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 104-118.
    10. Dalila NICET- CHENAF (GREThA-GRES) & Eric ROUGIER (GREThA-GRES), 2008. "Recent exports matter: export discoveries, FDI and Growth, an empirical assessment for MENA countries," Cahiers du GRES (2002-2009) 2008-17, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
    11. Lee, Iona Hyojung, 2018. "Industrial output fluctuations in developing countries: General equilibrium consequences of agricultural productivity shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 240-279.
    12. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Do unilateral trade preferences help reduce poverty in beneficiary countries?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 249-288, February.
    13. Guan, Shu & Cheng, Liwei, 2020. "Does product complexity matter for firms' TFP?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    14. Alejandro Cuñat & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Volatility, Labor Market Flexibility, And The Pattern Of Comparative Advantage," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 225-254, April.
    15. Cyrielle Gaglio, 2015. "Measuring Country Competitiveness: A Survey of Exporting-based Indexes," GREDEG Working Papers 2015-42, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    16. Sandra Poncet & Felipe Starosta, 2013. "Export upgrading and growth in China: the prerequisite of domestic embeddedness," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS halshs-00960684, HAL.
    17. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar M., 2023. "Does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    18. Urška Čede & Bogdan Chiriacescu & Péter Harasztosi & Tibor Lalinsky & Jaanika Meriküll, 2018. "Export characteristics and output volatility: comparative firm-level evidence for CEE countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(2), pages 347-376, May.
    19. Jorge Miranda Pinto, 2021. "Production Network Structure, Service Share, and Aggregate Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 146-173, January.
    20. Bahar, Dany & Santos, Miguel A., 2018. "One more resource curse: Dutch disease and export concentration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 102-114.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output fluctuations; Technological diversification; Human capital; Product market conditions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:121:y:2016:i:c:p:94-109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.