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Skill Premium and Trade Puzzles: A Solution Linking Production and Preferences

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  • Markusen, James
  • Fally, Thibault
  • Caron, Justin

Abstract

International trade theory is a general-equilibrium discipline, yet most of the standard portfolio of research focuses on the production side of general equilibrium. In addition, we do not have a good understanding of the relationship between characteristics of goods in production and characteristics of preferences. This paper conducts an empirical investigation into the relationship between a good's factor intensity in production and its income elasticity of demand in consumption. In particular, we find a strong and significant positive relationship between skilled-labor intensity in production and income elasticity of demand for several types of preferences, with and without accounting for trade costs and differences in prices. Counter-factual simulations yield a number of results. We can explain about half of ?missing trade?, and show an important role for per-capita income in understanding trade/GDP ratios, the choice of trading partners, and the composition of trade. Furthermore, an equal rise in productivity in all sectors in all countries leads to a rising skill premium in all countries, with particularly large increases in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Markusen, James & Fally, Thibault & Caron, Justin, 2012. "Skill Premium and Trade Puzzles: A Solution Linking Production and Preferences," CEPR Discussion Papers 8999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8999
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    Cited by:

    1. Ariu, Andrea, 2016. "Crisis-proof services: Why trade in services did not suffer during the 2008–2009 collapse," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 138-149.
    2. Caron, Justin, 2013. "Per-capita income, consumption patterns and CO2 emissions," Conference papers 332403, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Markusen, James R., 2012. "Per-Capita Income as a Determinant of International Trade and Environmental Policies," Discussion Papers 2013-06, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit K. Khandelwal, 2016. "Measuring the Unequal Gains from Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1113-1180.
    5. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2016. "A generalized spatial error components model for gravity equations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 177-195, February.
    6. James R. Markusen, 2014. "Per-Capital Income as a Determinant of International Trade and Environment Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 4618, CESifo.
    7. Justin Caron & Thibault Fally & James Markusen, 2021. "Per capita income and the demand for skills," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 12, pages 251-268, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. David Atkin & Benjamin Faber & Marco Gonzalez-Navarro, 2018. "Retail Globalization and Household Welfare: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-73.
    9. Daniela MAGGIONI & Alessia LO TURCO & Mauro GALLEGATI, 2014. "Does export complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Working Papers 407, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    10. Christian Hepenstrick & Alexander Tarasov, 2015. "Per capita income and the extensive margin of bilateral trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 1561-1599, November.
    11. James R. Markusen, 2021. "Putting per-capita income back into trade theory," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 10, pages 187-197, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Claudia Bernasconi, 2013. "Similarity of income distributions and the extensive and intensive margin of bilateral trade flows," ECON - Working Papers 115, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity; Income; Missing trade; Non-homothetic preferences; Skill premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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