IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/anc/wpaper/320.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

La legge di Okun: asimmetrie e differenziali territoriali in Italia

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni BUSETTA

    (Universit… di Napoli "Parthenope")

  • Dario CORSO

    (Universit… degli Studi di Palermo, Centro Interdipartimentale per la Ricerca e il Monitoraggio, dell'Economia e del Territorio)

Abstract

[ABSTRACT] Okun's law turns out from the relationship between economic growth and unemployment fluctuations of the American economy during the sixties. Following his results several analyses tried to test the empirical relevance of the relation, initially estimated by Okun, for different countries and historical periods. Generally, authors found heterogeneous results in estimating Okun's coefficient, depending on the sample and context analylised. Moreover, recent analyses focused on the influence exerted by asymmetric components on the relation between output growth and unemployment rate. In this paper we propose an application regarding the Italian regions. In particular, we perform a panel analysis in order to estimate the influence of asymmetry and local market differences on Okun's relationship. Moreover, observing particularly low values of participation rate on labor market in southern areas, we propose other indicators more compatible with a delayed development area to estimate Okun's coefficient. [SOMMARIO] La legge di Okun consiste in una relazione empirica che lega le variazioni del tasso di disoccupazione alle variazioni nei tassi di crescita del PIL reale. L'interesse rivolto dalla letteratura economica nei confronti di tale relazione deriva dalle sue implicazioni in termini di politiche macroeconomiche. Molti lavori hanno verificato tale relazione in contesti spazio-temporali differenti. Ne Š emersa una certa variazione del coefficiente stimato, sia in relazione ai diversi orizzonti temporali, che al variare del contesto spaziale di riferimento In aggiunta, soprattutto i lavori piu' recenti hanno concentrato l'attenzione sulla eventuale presenza di componenti asimmetriche nella relazione. L'obiettivo della presente analisi consiste nel verificare la validita' della legge di Okun in Italia a livello sub nazionale, valutando contemporaneamente gli effetti della suddetta componente asimmetrica. Alla base di tale verifica risiede, infatti, l'ipotesi che in Italia siano presenti alcuni di quegli aspetti che lo stesso Okun indicava come probabili cause di una modifica dei risultati ottenuti dalle stime e soprattutto che le diversita', tipiche dei due mercati subnazionali del lavoro, possano condurre a stime significativamente diverse per il Centro-Nord e per il Mezzogiorno.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni BUSETTA & Dario CORSO, 2008. "La legge di Okun: asimmetrie e differenziali territoriali in Italia," Working Papers 320, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    • Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:320
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://docs.dises.univpm.it/web/quaderni/pdf/320.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allan D. Brunner, 1997. "On The Dynamic Properties Of Asymmetric Models Of Real GNP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 321-352, May.
    2. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    3. Freeman, Donald G, 2001. "Panel Tests of Okun's Law for Ten Industrial Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 511-523, October.
    4. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 335-356, June.
    5. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
    6. Giannini, Carlo & Lanzarotti, Antonio & Seghelini, Mario, 1995. "A traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations: The case of Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 131-155, March.
    7. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    8. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    9. Gary Smith, 1974. "Okun's Law Revisited," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 380, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Baltagi, Badi H & Griffin, James M, 1995. "A Dynamic Demand Model for Liquor: The Case for Pooling," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 545-554, August.
    11. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    12. Eliana Viviano, 2002. "Un�analisi critica delle definizioni di disoccupazione e partecipazione in Italia," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 450, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Paramsothy Silvapulle & Imad Moosa & Mervyn Silvapulle, 2004. "Asymmetry in Okun's law," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 353-374, May.
    14. Balakrishnan, Ravi & Michelacci, Claudio, 2001. "Unemployment dynamics across OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 135-165, January.
    15. Brian Silverstone & Richard Harris, 2001. "Testing for asymmetry in Okun's law: A cross-country comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(2), pages 1-13.
    16. Kaufman, Roger T., 1988. "An international comparison of Okun's laws," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 182-203, June.
    17. Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-336, May.
    18. Weber, Christian E, 1995. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 433-445, Oct.-Dec..
    19. Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 625-637, July.
    20. Chinhui Juhn & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 1991. "Why Has the Natural Rate of Unemployment Increased over Time?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 75-142.
    21. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    22. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Stuart E. Weiner, 1993. "New estimates of the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 78(Q IV), pages 53-69.
    24. David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    2. Alberto Russo, 2014. "A Stochastic Model of Wealth Accumulation with Class Division," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(1), pages 1-35, February.
    3. Ruggero Grilli & Gabriele Tedeschi & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "Markets connectivity and financial contagion," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 287-304, October.
    4. Alessandro STERLACCHINI, 2012. "Patent Oppositions as Competitive Tools: An Analysis of the Major Players in the European Market of White Goods," Working Papers 374, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    5. Eralba CELA & Tineke FOKKEMA & Elena AMBROSETTI, 2012. "Links Between Transnationalism Integration and Duration of Residence: The Case of eastern European Migrants in Italy," Working Papers 386, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    6. Fabio FIORILLO & Agnese SACCHI, 2010. "I Want to Free-ride. An Opportunistic View on Decentralization Versus Centralization Problem," Working Papers 346, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    7. Elena AMBROSETTI & Eralba CELA & Tineke FOKKEMA, 2011. "The Remittances Behaviour of the Second Generation in Europe: Altruism or Self-Interest?," Working Papers 368, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    8. Ugo FRATESI, 2010. "The National and International Effects;of Regional Policy Choices: Agglomeration Economies, Peripherality and Territorial Characteristics," Working Papers 344, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    9. Luca RICCETTI, 2010. "Minimum Tracking Error Volatility," Working Papers 340, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    10. Lenzu, Simone & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2012. "Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4331-4341.
    11. Luca RICCETTI, 2011. "A Copula-GARCH Model for Macro Asset Allocation of a Portfolio with Commodities: an Out-of-Sample Analysis," Working Papers 355, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Durech, Richard & Minea, Alexandru & Mustea, Lavinia & Slusna, Lubica, 2014. "Regional evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 57-65.
    2. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Time‐Varying Relationship between Unemployment and Output: What shapes it?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 605-630, November.
    3. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Ali Gul Khushik & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Zhao Yongliang, 2021. "The Impact of GDP and Its Expenditure Components on Unemployment Within BRICS Countries: Evidence of Okun’s Law From Aggregate and Disaggregated Approaches," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    4. Celia Melguizo, 2017. "An analysis of Okun’s law for the Spanish provinces," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 59-90, February.
    5. Antal, Miklós, 2014. "Green goals and full employment: Are they compatible?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 276-286.
    6. Luca Salvati, 2015. "Space matters: Reconstructing a Local-scale Okun's Law for Italy," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 5(1), pages 833-833.
    7. PERUGINI, Cristiano, 2009. "Employment Intensity Of Growth In Italy. A Note Using Regional Data," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    8. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
    9. Abdessalem GOUIDER & Ridha NOUIRA & Faouzi SBOUI, 2018. "La relation croissance-chômage en Tunisie : validation de la spécification non linéaire de la loi d’Okun," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 47, pages 27-41.
    10. Roger, Perman & Jean-Philippe, Boussemart & Walter, Briec & Christophe, Tavéra, 2013. "How do technical change and technological distance influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-60, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    11. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Lin, Shu-Chin, 2008. "Smooth-time-varying Okun's coefficients," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 363-375, March.
    12. Paramsothy Silvapulle & Imad A. Moosa & Mervyn J. Silvapulle, 2004. "Asymmetry in Okun's law," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 353-374, May.
    13. Costas KARFAKIS & Constantinos KATRAKILIDIS & Eftychia TSANANA, 2014. "Does output predict unemployment? A look at Okun's law in Greece," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 153(3), pages 421-433, September.
    14. Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Leat, Philip M.K. & Renwick, Alan W., 2012. "The relationship between output and unemployment in Scotland: A regional analysis," Working Papers 131465, Scotland's Rural College (formerly Scottish Agricultural College), Land Economy & Environment Research Group.
    15. Thomas Obst, 2022. "Dynamic version of Okun’s law in the EU15 countries—The role of delays in the unemployment‐output nexus," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 225-241, May.
    16. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2017. "Did Okun’s law die after the Great Recession?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 216-226, October.
    17. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Oliveira, Diego S.P., 2019. "Firms' confidence and Okun's law in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 98-107.
    18. Aki Kangasharju & Christophe Tavera & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Regional Growth and Unemployment: The Validity of Okun's Law for the Finnish Regions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 381-395, September.
    19. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    20. Pagliari Carmen & Mattoscio Nicola & Odoardi Iacopo & Tenerelli Fabiana, 2013. "Stability, Bifurcations And Chaos In Unemployment Non-Linear Dynamics," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 736-745, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maurizio Mariotti (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deancit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.