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Measuring excess mortality: the case of England during the Covid-19 Pandemic

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  • Aron, Janine
  • Muellbauer, John

Abstract

Excess mortality data avoid miscounting deaths from under-reporting of Covid-19-related deaths and other health conditions left untreated. According to EuroMOMO, which tracks excess mortality for 24 European states, England had the highest peak weekly excess mortality in total, for the over-65s, and, most strikingly, for the 15-64 age group. This column argues that research is needed into such divergent patterns. It suggests that national statistical offices should publish P-scores (excess deaths divided by 'normal' deaths) for states and sub-regions, and permit EuroMOMO to publish P-scores as well as their less transparent Z-scores. This would aid comparability, better inform pandemic policy, and allow lessons to be drawn across heterogeneous regions and countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2020. "Measuring excess mortality: the case of England during the Covid-19 Pandemic," INET Oxford Working Papers 2020-11, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:amz:wpaper:2020-11
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    File URL: https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/files/revised-15.54-18-May-20-Aron-Muellbauer-Revised-INET-Excess-Mortality-article-x.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cristini, Annalisa & Trivin, Pedro, 2022. "Close encounters during a pandemic: Social habits and inter-generational links in the first two waves of COVID-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    3. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    4. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Facing Economic Shifts, Climate Change and Evolving Pandemics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Stephen Malpezzi, 2021. "Housing “Affordability” and Responses During Times of Stress: A Brief Global Review," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_011, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.

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