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The welfare cost of vaccine misallocation, delays and nationalism

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  • Gollier, Christian

Abstract

I calibrate an eco-epidemiological age-structured SIR model of the B.1.1.7 covid variant on the eve of the vaccination campaign in France, under a stop-and-go lockdown policy. Three-quarters of the welfare benefit of the vaccine can be achieved with a speed of 100,000 full vaccination per day. A 1-week delay in the vaccination campaign raises the death toll by approximately 2,500, and it reduces wealth by 8 billion euros. Because of the large heterogeneity of the rates of hospitalization and mortality across age classes, it is critically important for the number of lives saved and for the economy to vaccinate older people first. Any departure from this policy has a welfare cost. Prioritizing the allocation of vaccines to the most vulnerable people save 70k seniors, but it also increases the death toll of younger people by 14k. Vaccine nationalism is modeled by assuming two identical Frances, one with a vaccine production capacity and the other without it. If the production country vaccinates its entire population before exporting to the other, the global death toll would be increased by 20\%. I also measure the welfare impact of the strong French anti-vax movement, and of the prohibition of an immunity passport.

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  • Gollier, Christian, 2021. "The welfare cost of vaccine misallocation, delays and nationalism," CEPR Discussion Papers 15980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15980
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Gollier, 2020. "If the Objective is Herd Immunity, on Whom Should it be Built?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 671-683, August.
    2. Christian Gollier, 2020. "Cost–benefit analysis of age‐specific deconfinement strategies," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(6), pages 1746-1771, December.
    3. Christian Gollier, 2020. "Pandemic economics: optimal dynamic confinement under uncertainty and learning," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 45(2), pages 80-93, September.
    4. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. W. Kip Viscusi, 2009. "The devaluation of life," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), pages 103-127, June.
    6. Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 2006. "The Value of Health and Longevity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 871-904, October.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivàn Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown," CeMMAP working papers CWP14/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. W. Kip Viscusi, 2009. "Reply to the comments on “The devaluation of life”," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3), pages 306-309, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    2. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk, 2022. "Optimal age-Based vaccination and economic mitigation policies for the second phase of the covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2022. "Impacts of Vaccination on International Trade During the Pandemic Era," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 60(4), pages 206-227, December.
    4. Antony Taubman, 2022. "Solidarity As A Practical Craft: Cohesion And Cooperation In Leveraging Access To Medical Technologies Within And Beyond The Trips Agreement," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 29(2), pages 19-45, November.
    5. Amelia Blamey & Ilan Noy, 2024. "Mistrust and Missed Shots: Trust and Covid-19 Vaccination Decisions," CESifo Working Paper Series 11134, CESifo.
    6. Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl & Enrico Turco, 2023. "V for vaccines and variants," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 991-1046, September.

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    Keywords

    Covid; Pandemic; Vaccine; Anti-vaxxer; Covid immunity passport;
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