IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v32y2007i9p1647-1659.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling changes to electricity demand load duration curves as a consequence of predicted climate change for Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Thatcher, Marcus J.

Abstract

In this paper, we describe a method for constructing regional electricity demand data sets at 30min intervals, which are consistent with climate change scenarios. Specifically, we modify a commonly used linear regression model between regional electricity demand and climate to also describe intraday variability in demand so that regional load duration curves (LDCs) can be predicted. The model is evaluated for four different Australian states that are participants in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) and the resultant data sets are found to reproduce each state's LDCs with reasonable accuracy. We also apply the demand model to CSIRO's Mk 3 global climate model data sets that have been downscaled to 60km resolution using CSIRO's conformal-cubic atmospheric model to estimate how LDCs change as a consequence of a 1°C increase in the average temperature of Australian state capital cities. These regional electricity demand data sets are then useful for economic modelling of electricity markets such as the NEM.

Suggested Citation

  • Thatcher, Marcus J., 2007. "Modelling changes to electricity demand load duration curves as a consequence of predicted climate change for Australia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1647-1659.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:32:y:2007:i:9:p:1647-1659
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2006.12.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544206003495
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2006.12.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sailor, D.J & Pavlova, A.A, 2003. "Air conditioning market saturation and long-term response of residential cooling energy demand to climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 941-951.
    2. Sailor, David J, 2001. "Relating residential and commercial sector electricity loads to climate—evaluating state level sensitivities and vulnerabilities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 645-657.
    3. Sailor, David J. & Muñoz, J.Ricardo, 1997. "Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A.—Methodology and results for eight states," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 987-998.
    4. Mirasgedis, S. & Sarafidis, Y. & Georgopoulou, E. & Lalas, D.P. & Moschovits, M. & Karagiannis, F. & Papakonstantinou, D., 2006. "Models for mid-term electricity demand forecasting incorporating weather influences," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 208-227.
    5. Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alvarez, Gonzalo E., 2021. "A multi-objective formulation of improving flexibility in the operation of electric power systems: Application to mitigation measures during the coronavirus pandemic," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Jacopo Torriti, 2017. "The Risk of Residential Peak Electricity Demand: A Comparison of Five European Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Eslahi, Mohammadehsan & Mazza, Paolo, 2023. "Can weather variables and electricity demand predict carbon emissions allowances prices? Evidence from the first three phases of the EU ETS," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    4. John Foster & William Paul Bell & Craig Froome & Phil Wild & Liam Wagner & Deepak Sharma & Suwin Sandu & Suchi Misra & Ravindra Bagia, 2012. "Institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 7-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    5. Foster, John & Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Sharma, Deepak & Sandu, Suwin & Froome, Craig & Wagner, Liam & Misra, Suchi & Bagia, Ravindra, 2013. "Analysis of institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change," MPRA Paper 47787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Karodine Chreng & Han Soo Lee & Soklin Tuy, 2022. "A Hybrid Model for Electricity Demand Forecast Using Improved Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Recurrent Neural Networks with ERA5 Climate Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-26, October.
    7. Hekkenberg, M. & Moll, H.C. & Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot, 2009. "Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1797-1806.
    8. Nam, KiJeon & Hwangbo, Soonho & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2020. "A deep learning-based forecasting model for renewable energy scenarios to guide sustainable energy policy: A case study of Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    9. Huva, Robert & Dargaville, Roger & Caine, Simon, 2012. "Prototype large-scale renewable energy system optimisation for Victoria, Australia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 326-334.
    10. Ahmed, T. & Vu, D.H. & Muttaqi, K.M. & Agalgaonkar, A.P., 2018. "Load forecasting under changing climatic conditions for the city of Sydney, Australia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 911-919.
    11. Bell, William, 2012. "The impact of climate change on electricity demand in the Australian national electricity market," MPRA Paper 38110, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Feb 2012.
    12. Wang, Chi-hsiang & Grozev, George & Seo, Seongwon, 2012. "Decomposition and statistical analysis for regional electricity demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 313-325.
    13. Jane Ebinger & Walter Vergara, 2011. "Climate Impacts on Energy Systems : Key Issues for Energy Sector Adaptation," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2271.
    14. Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Pereira de Lucena, André Frossard & Moreira Cesar Borba, Bruno Soares & Pupo Nogueira, Larissa Pinheiro & Fleming, Fernanda Pereira & Troccoli, Alberto & , 2012. "Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-12.
    15. Pasimeni, Maria Rita & Petrosillo, Irene & Aretano, Roberta & Semeraro, Teodoro & De Marco, Antonella & Zaccarelli, Nicola & Zurlini, Giovanni, 2014. "Scales, strategies and actions for effective energy planning: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 165-174.
    16. Psiloglou, B.E. & Giannakopoulos, C. & Majithia, S. & Petrakis, M., 2009. "Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A comparative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1855-1863.
    17. Waite, Michael & Cohen, Elliot & Torbey, Henri & Piccirilli, Michael & Tian, Yu & Modi, Vijay, 2017. "Global trends in urban electricity demands for cooling and heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 786-802.
    18. Son, Hyojoo & Kim, Changwan, 2017. "Short-term forecasting of electricity demand for the residential sector using weather and social variables," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 200-207.
    19. Francisco Ralston Fonseca & Paulina Jaramillo & Mario Bergés & Edson Severnini, 2019. "Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 435-451, June.
    20. Bradbear, Catherine & Friel, Sharon, 2013. "Integrating climate change, food prices and population health," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 56-66.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yau, Y.H. & Pean, H.L., 2011. "The climate change impact on air conditioner system and reliability in Malaysia—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4939-4949.
    2. Chabouni, Naima & Belarbi, Yacine & Benhassine, Wassim, 2020. "Electricity load dynamics, temperature and seasonality Nexus in Algeria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Gupta, Eshita, 2012. "Global warming and electricity demand in the rapidly growing city of Delhi: A semi-parametric variable coefficient approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1407-1421.
    4. Hekkenberg, M. & Benders, R.M.J. & Moll, H.C. & Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M., 2009. "Indications for a changing electricity demand pattern: The temperature dependence of electricity demand in the Netherlands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1542-1551, April.
    5. Hekkenberg, M. & Moll, H.C. & Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot, 2009. "Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1797-1806.
    6. Wang, Yaoping & Bielicki, Jeffrey M., 2018. "Acclimation and the response of hourly electricity loads to meteorological variables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 473-485.
    7. Marilyn A. Brown & Matt Cox & Ben Staver & Paul Baer, 2016. "Modeling climate-driven changes in U.S. buildings energy demand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 29-44, January.
    8. Eshita Gupta, 2016. "The Effect Of Development On The Climate Sensitivity Of Electricity Demand In India," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-49, May.
    9. Jianhua Huang & Kevin Robert Gurney, 2016. "Impact of climate change on U.S. building energy demand: sensitivity to spatiotemporal scales, balance point temperature, and population distribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 171-185, July.
    10. Moral-Carcedo, Julián & Pérez-García, Julián, 2015. "Temperature effects on firms’ electricity demand: An analysis of sectorial differences in Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 407-425.
    11. Li, Danny H.W. & Yang, Liu & Lam, Joseph C., 2012. "Impact of climate change on energy use in the built environment in different climate zones – A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 103-112.
    12. Marilyn Brown & Matt Cox & Ben Staver & Paul Baer, 2016. "Modeling climate-driven changes in U.S. buildings energy demand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 29-44, January.
    13. Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina & Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Tuomenvirta, Heikki, 2010. "Climate change and electricity consumption--Witnessing increasing or decreasing use and costs?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2409-2419, May.
    14. Harish, Santosh & Singh, Nishmeet & Tongia, Rahul, 2020. "Impact of temperature on electricity demand: Evidence from Delhi and Indian states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Psiloglou, B.E. & Giannakopoulos, C. & Majithia, S. & Petrakis, M., 2009. "Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A comparative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1855-1863.
    16. Miller, J. Isaac & Nam, Kyungsik, 2022. "Modeling peak electricity demand: A semiparametric approach using weather-driven cross-temperature response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Li, Xian-Xiang, 2018. "Linking residential electricity consumption and outdoor climate in a tropical city," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 734-743.
    18. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2008. "The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: A threshold panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2705-2721, September.
    19. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Taha Chaiechi & ABM Rabiul Alam Beg, 2018. "The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(7), pages 1263-1297, November.
    20. Daniel C. Steinberg & Bryan K. Mignone & Jordan Macknick & Yinong Sun & Kelly Eurek & Andrew Badger & Ben Livneh & Kristen Averyt, 2020. "Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 125-139, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:32:y:2007:i:9:p:1647-1659. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.