IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uerstb/338950.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Documentation for the USDA, Economic Research Service Annual U.S. Dairy Sector Econometric Model

Author

Listed:
  • Cessna, Jerry
  • DelCurto, Molly
  • Terán, Angel
  • Crouse, Joseph

Abstract

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service (ERS) maintains and uses a dynamic dairy sector model for the United States. This model is a tool for the development of 10-year dairy projections, as published in the USDA Agricultural Projections annual report. The model is also used to analyze changes in market conditions and the impacts of changes in various Federal Government policies on the dairy sector. This report provides documentation on the specification and estimation employed by this model to obtain projections for the dairy sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Cessna, Jerry & DelCurto, Molly & Terán, Angel & Crouse, Joseph, 2023. "Documentation for the USDA, Economic Research Service Annual U.S. Dairy Sector Econometric Model," Technical Bulletins 338950, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerstb:338950
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.338950
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/338950/files/tb-1961.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.338950?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bergtold, Jason S. & Akobundu, Eberechukwu & Peterson, Everett B., 2004. "The FAST Method: Estimating Unconditional Demand Elasticities for Processed Foods in the Presence of Fixed Effects," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Westcott, Paul C., 2005. "Counter-Cyclical Payments Under the 2002 Farm Act: Production Effects Likely to be Limited," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1-5.
    3. Stewart, Hayden & Kuchler, Fred & Dong, Diansheng & Cessna, Jerry, 2021. "Examining the Decline in U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Fluid Cow’s Milk, 2003–18," USDA Miscellaneous 316500, United States Department of Agriculture.
    4. MacDonald, James M. & Cessna, Jerry & Mosheim, Roberto, 2016. "Changing Structure, Financial Risks, and Government Policy for the U.S. Dairy Industry," Economic Research Report 262200, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Stewart, Hayden & Kuchler, Fred & Dong, Diansheng & Cessna, Jerry, 2021. "Examining the Decline in U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Fluid Cow’s Milk, 2003–18," Economic Research Report 327183, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Marin Bozic & Christopher A. Kanter & Brian W. Gould, 2012. "Tracing the evolution of the aggregate U.S. milk supply elasticity using a herd dynamics model," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(5), pages 515-530, September.
    7. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gillespie, Jeffrey & Njuki, Eric & Terán, Angel, 2024. "Structure, Costs, and Technology Used on U.S. Dairy Farms," Economic Research Report 344571, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Gillespie, Jeffrey & Raszap Skorbiansky, Sharon & Law, Jonathan, 2024. "U.S. Certified Organic Dairy Production: Three Decades of Growth," Economic Research Report 346026, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Mark, Tyler B. & Burdine, Kenneth H. & Cessna, Jerry & Dohlman, Erik, 2016. "The Effects of the Margin Protection Program for Dairy Producers," Economic Research Report 262192, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Zia-Ur- Rahman, 2019. "Influence of Excessive Expenditure of the Government in Perspective of Interest Rate and Money Circulation Which in Turn Affects the Growing Process in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 120-129.
    5. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 32-61, March.
    6. Yuanyuan Zhang & Saralees Nadarajah, 2017. "Flexible Heavy Tailed Distributions for Big Data," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 421-432, September.
    7. repec:lic:licosd:42821 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bel, K. & Paap, R., 2013. "Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sollis, Robert, 2011. "Spurious regression: A higher-order problem," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 141-143, May.
    11. Kwabena Asomanin Anaman & Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari, 2019. "Political Economy Analysis of the Macroeconomic Impact of National Elections in Ghana During the Fourth Republican Era, 1992 to 2016," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 28-44, May.
    12. Chouinard, Hayley H & Davis, David E. & LaFrance, Jeffrey T. & Perloff, Jeffrey M, 2005. "The Effects of a Fat Tax on Dairy Products," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt60t1f3tn, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    13. Busch, Thomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2011. "The role of implied volatility in forecasting future realized volatility and jumps in foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 48-57, January.
    14. Jonas Hirz & Uwe Schmock & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2017. "Actuarial Applications and Estimation of Extended CreditRisk+," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-29, March.
    15. Jin-Guan Lin & Li-Xing Zhu & Chun-Zheng Cao & Yong Li, 2011. "Tests of heteroscedasticity and correlation in multivariate t regression models with AR and ARMA errors," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 1509-1531, August.
    16. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "Modeling US historical time-series prices and inflation using alternative long-memory approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1491-1511, April.
    17. Schmitz Andrew & Schmitz Troy G., 2010. "Benefit-Cost Analysis: Distributional Considerations under Producer Quota Buyouts," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, July.
    18. Valizadeh, Pourya & Karali, Berna & Ferreira, Susana, 2017. "Ripple effects of the 2011 Japan earthquake on international stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 556-576.
    19. Grzegorz Rybak & Edward Kozłowski & Krzysztof Król & Tomasz Rymarczyk & Agnieszka Sulimierska & Artur Dmowski & Piotr Bednarczuk, 2023. "Algorithms for Optimizing Energy Consumption for Fermentation Processes in Biogas Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-17, December.
    20. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    21. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    22. David F. Hendry, 2013. "Econometric Modelling: The ‘Consumption Function’ In Retrospect," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(5), pages 495-522, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uerstb:338950. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.