IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332890.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Brexit Trade Impacts: Alternative Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Ciuriak, Dan
  • Dadkhah, Ali
  • Xiao, Jingliang

Abstract

This note develops four alternative estimates of the trade-related impacts of the United Kingdom seceding from the European Union. We contrast an exit that re-sets the UK’s relationship with the rest of the EU to a WTO-rules most favoured nation basis (“Brexit”) with a negotiated change in the UK’s status that largely preserves the UK’s integration with the rest of the EU at a level similar to that of the European Free Trade Association (“Brefta”). While these two scenarios model the EU disaggregated into sixteen regions, a third scenario shows the implications for outcomes of modelling the Brexit scenario treating the rest of the EU (EU27) on an aggregated basis, where we introduce a “single market” effect that reflects EU27 preference for EU27 products. A fourth scenario introduces a UK free trade agreement with the United States in the context of the TTIP not going ahead, which reflects the emerging political economy of trans-Atlantic trade relations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciuriak, Dan & Dadkhah, Ali & Xiao, Jingliang, 2017. "Brexit Trade Impacts: Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332890, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332890
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332890/files/8782.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David L. Hummels & Georg Schaur, 2013. "Time as a Trade Barrier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2935-2959, December.
    2. Boumellassa, Houssein & Debucquet, David Laborde & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2009. "A picture of tariff protection across the World in 2004: MAcMap-HS6, Version 2," IFPRI discussion papers 903, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," Working Papers hal-00962464, HAL.
    4. Ossa, Ralph, 2015. "Why trade matters after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 266-277.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria Cipollina & David Laborde Debucquet & Luca Salvatici, 2017. "The tide that does not raise all boats: an assessment of EU preferential trade policies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 199-231, February.
    2. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's Box: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon," Working Papers 2013-22, CEPII research center.
    3. Ahmad Lashkaripour, 2014. "Markups, International Specialization, and the Gains from Trade," 2014 Papers pla686, Job Market Papers.
    4. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2021. "Calibrating Long-Term Trade Baselines in General Equilibrium," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 4, pages 97-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia, 2014. "The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe," CEPS Papers 9142, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    6. Jean Chateau & Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 67-100.
    7. Kym Anderson, 2016. "Contributions Of The Gatt/Wto To Global Economic Welfare: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 56-92, February.
    8. Cipollina, Maria & Laborde, David & Salvatici, Luca, 2013. "Do Preferential Trade Policies (Actually) Increase Exports? An analysis of EU trade policies," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150177, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Edwin L.-C. Lai & Haichao Fan & Han Steffan Qi, 2020. "Global gains from reduction in trade costs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 70(1), pages 313-345, July.
    10. Leibovici, Fernando & Waugh, Michael E., 2019. "International trade and intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 158-174.
    11. Marijke J.D. Bos & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2019. "Imported input varieties and product innovation: Evidence from five developing countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 520-548, May.
    12. Demet Yilmazkuday & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2017. "The role of direct flights in trade costs," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 249-270, May.
    13. Marc J. Melitz & Stephen J. Redding, 2015. "New Trade Models, New Welfare Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1105-1146, March.
    14. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1049, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Anderson Michael A. & Schaefer Kurt C. & Smith Stephen L. S., 2013. "Can Price Dispersion Reveal Distance-Related Trade Costs? Evidence from the United States," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 151-173, June.
    16. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Kiyoyasu Tanaka & Yasushi Ueki, 2013. "Transport Modal Choice by Multinational Firms: Firm-level Evidence from Southeast Asia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 609-623, December.
    17. Gabriel Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler & Volker Treier & Heribert Dieter & Christoph Herrmann & Cosimo Beverelli & Simon Neumüller & Robert Teh & Richard Senti & Matthias Lücke & Peter-Tobias Stoll, 2014. "Bali-Abkommen: Wer gewinnt, und wer trägt die Kosten?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(03), pages 03-34, February.
    18. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin & Heiland, Inga, 2022. "Complex Europe: Quantifying the cost of disintegration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    19. Erica Perego & Lionel Fontagné & Gianluca Santoni, 2022. "MaGE 3.1: Long-term macroeconomic projections of the World economy," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 172, pages 168-189.
    20. Hildegunn K. Nordås & Dorothée Rouzet, 2017. "The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Trade Flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 1155-1183, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332890. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.