Simulation des impacts de la politique d’autosuffisance en riz de l’Afrique de l’ouest

Rice is a strategic commodity for West Africa in terms of its contribution to food security strategy. Its consumption has grown over time in the eating habits of West African households. From 32 kg per capita consumed in 1990 in the region, the level of the rice consumption per capita increased to 34 kg in 2000 and got 49 kg in 2012. It’s to note that this consumption is quite heterogeneous among countries. We distinguish some large consumers such as Sierra Leone (97.9 kg/capita), Guinea- Bissau (93.2 kg/capita), Liberia (89 kg/capita) and Guinea (84.2 kg/capita) one hand. On the other hand, we have countries like Ghana (17.5 kg/capita), Benin (15.4 kg/capita), Burkina Faso (13.8 kg/capita) and Niger (10.1 kg/capita) that consume less. Achieving self-sufficiency in rice by 2025 is a priority for the regional authorities. Thus, the contribution of this analysis is to provide a better understanding of the demand for rice for planning self-sufficiency and food security policies. This analysis also seeks to assess the potential impact of the rice self-sufficiency policy. After investigation, the income elasticity of rice consumption is estimated at 0.527 in ECOWAS. This means that a 1% increase in income would cause an increase in demand for rice 0.527 %. The projected demand in the sub-region would be between 20 and 24 million tons in 2025 against a demand of 15.67 million in 2012. Thus, achieving self-sufficiency in rice ECOWAS 2025 will be a major challenge for the authorities in that it implies an average annual production growth of over 8 %. In terms of economic and social impact, the implementation of the Rice Policy would increase GDP by 0.1 percentage point relative to the baseline, create 4.3 million jobs in the agricultural sector and 3.9 million in the non-agricultural sector in 2025. Moreover, food security gradually increase to 4% in 2025 and 14% for rice and all food products.