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What Level of Public Debt Could India Target?

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  • Petia Topalova
  • Dan Nyberg

Abstract

This paper discusses possible medium-term public debt targets for India, based on evidence from the economic literature on prudent levels of public debt and the feasibility for the country to meet a particular target over the next 5-6 years. While recognizing the challenges in determining an appropriate debt target, cross-country analysis and simulations suggest that a debt ratio in the range of 60-65 percent of GDP by 2015/16 might be suitable for India. Such a debt ceiling, while still above the average debt level for emerging markets, is within the range of debt ratios that would provide room for countercyclical fiscal policy and contingent liabilities. It would also send a strong signal of the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation by making a clear break with the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Petia Topalova & Dan Nyberg, 2010. "What Level of Public Debt Could India Target?," IMF Working Papers 2010/007, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/007
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Sri Lanka: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/286, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Shiv Shankar & Pushpa Trivedi, 2023. "Assessing India’s fiscal sustainability considering debt–deficit and financing dynamics," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 41-70, June.
    3. Mr. Magnus Saxegaard, 2014. "Safe Debt and Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: An Application to South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2014/231, International Monetary Fund.
    4. N. R. Bhanumurthy & Sukanya Bose & Parma Chakravartti, 2018. "Targeting Debt and Deficits in India: A Structural Macroeconometric Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 87-119, December.
    5. Helder Mendonça & Felipe Tostes, 2015. "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 787-816, September.
    6. Narayan, Laxmi, 2017. "Growth of Public Debt in Haryana – Dynamism or Misplaced Priorities," MPRA Paper 79431, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 May 2017.
    7. LaGarda, Guillermo & Prat, Jordi & Solera, Marco & Beverinotti, Javier, 2016. "Debt and Credit Quality in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic," MPRA Paper 74163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Hakhu, Antra Bhatt, 2015. "Productive Public Expenditure and Debt Dynamics: An Error Correction Representation using Indian Data," Working Papers 15/149, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    9. van Doorn, Ralph & Suri, Vivek & Gooptu, Sudarshan, 2010. "Do middle-income countries continue to have the ability to deal with the global financial crisis ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5381, The World Bank.

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