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The Sustainability Of State Budget In Debt Repayment

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  • Haryo Kuncoro

    (Universitas Negeri Jakarta)

Abstract

This paper is designed to analyze the sustainability of the central government budget in the case of Indonesia over the period of 1999-2009. First, we explore the theoretical background of the fiscal sustainability. Second, we develop a model to capture some factors determining the fiscal sustainability. Unlike the previous studies, we use both domestic debt and foreign debt to assess the fiscal solvency. Finally, we estimate it empirically. Based on the quarterly data analysis, we concluded that the government budget is unsustainable. This is associated with domestic debt rather than foreign debt. They imply that the central government should manage the debts carefully including re-profile, re-schedule, and re-structure them in order to spread the excess burden in the future. Also, the fiscal risks should be calculated comprehensively in order to maintain solvency.

Suggested Citation

  • Haryo Kuncoro, 2011. "The Sustainability Of State Budget In Debt Repayment," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 13(4), pages 415-434, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:13:y:2011:i:4g:p:415-434
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v13i4.400
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Domestic debt; Foreign debt; Fiscal sustainability; Primary balance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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