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Time-Varying Multiproduct Hedge Ratio Estimation In The Soybean Complex: A Simplified Approach

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  • Manfredo, Mark R.
  • Garcia, Philip
  • Leuthold, Raymond M.

Abstract

In developing optimal hedge ratios for the soybean processing margin, many authors have illustrated the importance of considering the interactions between the cash and futures prices for soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal. Conditional as well as time-varying hedge ratios have been examined, but in the case of multiproduct time-varying hedge ratios, the difficulty in estimation has been found to often outweigh any improvement in hedging effectiveness. This research examines the hedging effectiveness of the Risk Metrics procedure for estimating a time-varying covariance matrix for developing optimal hedge ratios for the soybean processing margin. The Risk Metrics method allows for a time-varying covariance matrix while being considerably easier to implement than multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) procedures. The Risk Metrics procedure has been advocated for use in developing Value-at-Risk estimates. While it provided considerable out-of-sample improvement in hedging effectiveness relative to a constant correlation MGARCH procedure, the Risk Metrics method provided only minimal improvement over a naive (1-to-1) hedging strategy. However, this research does illustrate the potential for the Risk Metrics methodology as a viable alternative to MGARCH procedures in a multiproduct hedging context.

Suggested Citation

  • Manfredo, Mark R. & Garcia, Philip & Leuthold, Raymond M., 2000. "Time-Varying Multiproduct Hedge Ratio Estimation In The Soybean Complex: A Simplified Approach," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18933, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrtci:18933
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.18933
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Myers & Stanley R. Thompson, 1989. "Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 858-868.
    2. Mark R. Manfredo. & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1999. "Market Risk Measurement and the Cattle Feeding Margin: An Application of Value-at-Risk," Finance 9908002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    4. Paul L. Fackler & Kevin P. McNew, 1993. "Multiproduct Hedging: Theory, Estimation, and an Application," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(3), pages 521-535.
    5. Tae H. Park & Lorne N. Switzer, 1995. "Bivariate GARCH estimation of the optimal hedge ratios for stock index futures: A note," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 61-67, February.
    6. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-124, April-Jun.
    7. Manfredo, Mark R. & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1999. "Measuring Market Risk Of The Cattle Feeding Margin: An Application Of Value-At-Risk Analysis," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21628, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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    1. Liu, Pan & Vedenov, Dmitry & Power, Gabriel J., 2017. "Is hedging the crack spread no longer all it's cracked up to be?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 31-40.
    2. William W. Wilson & William E. Nganje & Robert Wagner, 2006. "Hedging Strategies for Grain Processors," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 54(2), pages 311-326, June.
    3. Tejeda, Hernan A., 2012. "Time-Varying Price Interactions and Risk Management in Livestock Feed Markets – Determining the Ethanol Surge Effect," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124956, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2011. "A dynamic hedging approach for refineries in multiproduct oil markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-887.
    5. Wilson, William W. & Wagner, Robert & Nganje, William E., 2003. "Strategic Hedging For Grain Processors," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 23637, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    6. Hernan A. Tejeda & Barry K. Goodwin, 2014. "Dynamic multiproduct optimal hedging in the soybean complex - do time-varying correlations provide hedging improvements?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(27), pages 3312-3322, September.
    7. Songjiao Chen & William Wilson & Ryan Larsen & Bruce Dahl, 2016. "Risk Management for Grain Processors and “Copulas”," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(2), pages 365-382, June.

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