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Dynamic multiproduct optimal hedging in the soybean complex - do time-varying correlations provide hedging improvements?

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  • Hernan A. Tejeda
  • Barry K. Goodwin

Abstract

Optimal multiproduct time-varying hedge ratios are determined - for a soybean complex - and their risk-mitigating impact is contrasted over single-commodity time-varying and naive hedge ratios. A parsimonious regime-switching dynamic correlation model is employed, with the estimated dynamic correlation matrix among prices varying between two different levels, and the time-varying correlations being applied to the multiproduct setting. Findings obtained are three-fold. First, there is significant evidence that estimated simultaneous correlations among different commodities' prices (e.g. soybean spot and soybean meal futures) attain different values along the time series. Second, there is a substantial reduction in margin variance provided by the optimal multiproduct time-varying hedge ratios over single time-varying and naive hedge ratios, for both in- and out-of-sample data. Third, average optimal multiproduct time-varying hedge ratios for soybean and soybean meal (0.82 and 0.74, respectively; for out-of-sample data) are significantly below the naive full hedge ratio, providing risk mitigation at lower costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernan A. Tejeda & Barry K. Goodwin, 2014. "Dynamic multiproduct optimal hedging in the soybean complex - do time-varying correlations provide hedging improvements?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(27), pages 3312-3322, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:27:p:3312-3322
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.927571
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tejeda, Hernan A. & Goodwin, Barry K. & Pelletier, Denis, 2009. "A State Dependent Regime Switching Model of Dynamic Correlations," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49370, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Manfredo, Mark R. & Garcia, Philip & Leuthold, Raymond M., 2000. "Time-Varying Multiproduct Hedge Ratio Estimation In The Soybean Complex: A Simplified Approach," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18933, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Liu, Pan & Vedenov, Dmitry & Power, Gabriel J., 2017. "Is hedging the crack spread no longer all it's cracked up to be?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 31-40.

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