Estimation of private stock of food grains in Bangladesh: Data sources and methodological issues

Empirical studies to explain the reasons behind the 2007-2008 price volatility in the global food grain markets showed that among other factors, food grain stock especially stock-to-use ratio, was a major factor in price volatility. It has also been found that current data on stock at both global and national levels are inadequate, of poor quality and there is much to gain from investing in improving its quality for better understanding the price volatility in food grain markets and for take more appropriate policy decisions. Efforts are currently underway through a global project on Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) for improving the mechanism of collection and dissemination of food grain stock data. This study has been conducted as a part of that project implemented in Bangladesh. Past efforts in the collection and dissemination of food grain stock data in Bangladesh and their conceptual and methodological strengths and weaknesses have been reviewed with a view to identify data gaps, methodological deficiencies and suggest measures required for improvement. The review revealed that currently there is no mechanism for regular collection and dissemination of food grain stock data in spite of its usefulness in the formulation of food policy and monitoring food grain markets and prices. The accuracy of the economy-wide monthly stocks depends on the accuracy of the parameters and the assumptions made about gross and net production, marketed surplus and sales pattern by month, population, per capita consumption as well as estimates on carryover stocks, domestic procurement and disposal. There is hardly any consensus on the accuracy of the available statistics on these parameters either from nationwide or from sample surveys. Recommendations have been made on mechanism of good quality stock data collection using proper conceptual and methodological approaches.