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Laboratory Evidence on How Managers Intuitively Value Real Growth Options

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  • Sydney D. Howell
  • Axel J. Jägle

Abstract

We asked 82 experienced managers to value, in effect, a set of real options, by taking decisions on invented case studies. The classic Black Scholes model should set an upper bound for rational valuations of these options (since it assumes a risk neutral discount rate, which may be optimistic). The managers valued their options erratically, and generally optimistically, though their responses to changes in moneyness, volatility and maturity tended to be in the ‘correct’ directions. Oil industry managers over‐valued least, relative to Black‐Scholes, and Brewery managers most. Questionnaires explored managers' perceptions of the real option parameters encountered in their workplaces.

Suggested Citation

  • Sydney D. Howell & Axel J. Jägle, 1997. "Laboratory Evidence on How Managers Intuitively Value Real Growth Options," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7‐8), pages 915-935, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:24:y:1997:i:7-8:p:915-935
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.00142
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    Cited by:

    1. Thierry Burger-Helmchen, 2007. "Justifying the Origin of Real Options and their Difficult Evaluation in Strategic Management," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 59(4), pages 387-405, October.
    2. Wu, Ming-Cheng, 2011. "Antecedents of patent value using exchange option models: Evidence from a panel data analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 81-86, January.
    3. Turvey, Calum G. & Toole, Andrew A. & Kropp, Jaclyn D., 2007. "An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Real Options Values and the Rate of Investment," 2007 1st Forum, February 15-17, 2007, Innsbruck, Austria 6606, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    4. Pollio, Gerald & Uchida, Koichi, 1999. "Management background, corporate governance and industrial restructuring: the Japanese upstream petroleum industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(14), pages 813-832, December.
    5. Gesa Sophie Holst & Alexander März & Oliver Mußhoff, 2016. "Experimentelle Untersuchung der Optimalität von Investitionsentscheidungen [Do personal and experiment-specific characteristics influence the optimality of investment decisions?]," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 167-192, July.
    6. Alkaraan, Fadi & Northcott, Deryl, 2006. "Strategic capital investment decision-making: A role for emergent analysis tools?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 149-173.
    7. Ming-Cheng Wu & Chun-Yao Tseng, 2006. "Valuation of patent - a real options perspective," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 313-318.
    8. Jeffrey J. Reuer & Tony W. Tong, 2010. "Discovering Valuable Growth Opportunities: An Analysis of Equity Alliances with IPO Firms," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 202-215, February.
    9. San–Lin Chung & Mark B. Shackleton, 2007. "Generalised Geske‐‐Johnson Interpolation of Option Prices," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5‐6), pages 976-1001, June.
    10. MacDougall, Shelley L. & Pike, Richard H., 2003. "Consider your options: changes to strategic value during implementation of advanced manufacturing technology," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-15, February.
    11. Driouchi, Tarik & Trigeorgis, Lenos & So, Raymond H.Y., 2020. "Individual antecedents of real options appraisal: The role of national culture and ambiguity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1018-1032.
    12. Hamill, Philip A. & McIlkenny, Philip & Opong, Kwaku K., 2013. "Valuation implications of pharmaceutical companies' R&D regulatory approval notifications," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 99-111.

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