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Recalling Extra Data: A Replication Study of Finding Missing Markets

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  • Wood, Benjamin D.K.
  • Dong, Michell

Abstract

We reexamine some of the strongest evidence supporting cash-crop-based development strategies by replicating Nara Ashraf, Xavier Giné and Dean Karlan’s ‘Finding missing markets (and a disturbing epilogue): Evidence from an export crop adoption and marketing intervention in Kenya’, published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics. The original evaluation, of an agricultural export crop promotion intervention in Kenya, is one of the few impact evaluations exploring how agricultural commercialisation affects household outcomes. Our attempt to independently reconstruct the evaluation using the existing raw data finds the original results generally robust to replication, albeit with much lower coefficients on some of the main outcomes of interest. We explore the evaluation’s theory of change, focusing on the result that first-time export crop adopters benefit more from agricultural commercialisation than agricultural households that were already producing export crops. We also examine questions around adequate power requirements and potential recall and or courtesy bias within the analysis. Reproducing these original results is relevant both to encourage policymakers to use this evidence and to highlight knowledge gaps for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Wood, Benjamin D.K. & Dong, Michell, 2015. "Recalling Extra Data: A Replication Study of Finding Missing Markets," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 206225, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iats14:206225
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.206225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wood, Benjamin & Nelson, Carl H. & Kilic, Talip & Murray, Siobhan, 2012. "Up in Smoke?: Agricultural Commercialization,Rising Food Prices and Stunting in Malawi," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 131261, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Kherallah, Mylène & Delgado, Christopher L. & Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z. & Minot, Nicholas & Johnson, Michael, 2002. "Reforming agricultural markets in Africa," Food policy statements 38, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    5. Kherallah, Mylene & Delgado, Christopher L. & Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z. & Minot, Nicholas & Johnson, Mi (ed.), 2002. "Reforming agricultural markets in Africa: Achievements and challenges," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 0-8018-7145-X, June.
    6. Verduzco-Gallo, à ñigo & Ecker, Olivier & Pauw, Karl, 2014. "Changes in food and nutrition security in Malawi: Analysis of recent survey evidence," MaSSP working papers 6, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Fan, Shenggen & Brzeska, Joanna & Keyzer, Michiel & Halsema, Alex, 2013. "From subsistence to profit: Transforming smallholder farms," Food policy reports 26, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Fermont, Anneke & Benson, Todd, 2011. "Estimating yield of food crops grown by smallholder farmers: A review in the Uganda context," IFPRI discussion papers 1097, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Annette N. Brown & Drew B. Cameron & Benjamin D. K. Wood, 2014. "Quality evidence for policymaking: I'll believe it when I see the replication," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 215-235, September.
    10. Strasberg, Paul J. & Jayne, Thomas S. & Yamano, Takashi & Nyoro, James K. & Karanja, Daniel David & Strauss, John, 1999. "Effects of Agricultural Commercialization on Food Crop Input Use and Productivity in Kenya," Food Security International Development Working Papers 54675, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
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    1. Wood, Benjamin Douglas Kuflick & Vasquez, Maria, 2018. "Microplots and food security: Encouraging replication studies of policy relevant research," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-12.
    2. Brown, Annette N. & Wood, Benjamin Douglas Kuflick, 2018. "Which tests not witch hunts: A diagnostic approach for conducting replication research," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-26.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries;

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