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When the Data Source Writes the Conclusion: Evaluating Agricultural Policies

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  • Sam Desiere
  • Lotte Staelens
  • Marijke D’Haese

Abstract

Statistics describe realities, but they also shape them, since they are used to design or support policies. As such accurate statistics are important. Using the agricultural sector in Rwanda as a case study, we demonstrate that dubious statistics can spread quickly. According to data from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), yields have increased by 60 per cent since the implementation of large scale agricultural reforms, while other datasets point towards more modest gains. Yet, estimates in line with those of the FAO dominate the official discourse. We suggest that the discrepancies between datasets may be explained by the difficulties of collecting accurate agricultural statistics combined with an incentive to overestimate yields to show that the reforms have worked.

Suggested Citation

  • Sam Desiere & Lotte Staelens & Marijke D’Haese, 2016. "When the Data Source Writes the Conclusion: Evaluating Agricultural Policies," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(9), pages 1372-1387, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:52:y:2016:i:9:p:1372-1387
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2016.1146703
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    Cited by:

    1. Ndeye Fatou FAYE & Moussa SALL & François AFFHOLDER & Françoise GERARD, 2019. "Inégalités de revenu en milieu rural dans le bassin arachidier du Sénégal," Working Paper 34d2e437-5e15-4a11-b09d-0, Agence française de développement.
    2. Illien, Patrick & Bieri, Sabin, 2024. "Political settlements analysis and the study of pro-poor development: Laos and Rwanda compared," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    3. Sebastian Heinen, 2022. "Rwanda’s Agricultural Transformation Revisited: Stagnating Food Production, Systematic Overestimation, and a Flawed Performance Contract System," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(10), pages 2044-2064, October.
    4. Sung Kyu Kim & Fiona Marshall & Neil M. Dawson, 2022. "Revisiting Rwanda’s agricultural intensification policy: benefits of embracing farmer heterogeneity and crop-livestock integration strategies," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(3), pages 637-656, June.
    5. Maruyama, Eduardo & Wagner, Julia & de Brauw, Alan, 2024. "Is it a myth? Market power among intermediaries in agri-food value chains," CGIAR Initative Publications Rethinking Food Markets, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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