IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/hwwadp/26185.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Risks, Bankruptcy Probabilities, and the Investment Behaviour of Enterprises

Author

Listed:
  • Kirchesch, Kai

Abstract

The link between investment and finance usually enters the empirical literature in the form of financial constraints which are defined as the wedge between the costs of internal and external finance or as the risk of being rationed on the credit market. In this context, the sensitivity of investment with respect to single internal or external finance indicators is assumed to be appropriate to proxy for these constraints. However, enterprises that rely on external funds do not only face this external finance premium and potential borrowing limits, but also the risk of not being able to meet their repayment obligations and thus the risk of bankruptcy. If the risk of bankruptcy enters the profit maximization of the firm, the resulting empirical investment function includes the probability of survival as an additional explanatory variable. This modified neoclassical investment equation is tested with West German panel data which include more than 6000 enterprises and cover a period of 12 years. The empirical results confirm the assumption that the risk of bankruptcy is an important determinant of the enterprises' investment behaviour. Additionally, the results raise the question whether financial constraints respective cash flow sensitivies are the appropriate way to test for the influence of the financial sphere on the investment decisions of enterprises, or whether bankruptcy probabilities better account for these potential financial risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirchesch, Kai, 2004. "Financial Risks, Bankruptcy Probabilities, and the Investment Behaviour of Enterprises," Discussion Paper Series 26185, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:hwwadp:26185
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.26185
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/26185/files/dp040299.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.26185?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    2. Whited, Toni M, 1992. "Debt, Liquidity Constraints, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1425-1460, September.
    3. Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2000. "Microeconometric Evidence for a German Credit Channel," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20002, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    4. Stephen D. Williamson, 1987. "Costly Monitoring, Loan Contracts, and Equilibrium Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(1), pages 135-145.
    5. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    6. Mark Gertler, 1992. "Financial Capacity and Output Fluctuations in an Economy with Multi-Period Financial Relationships," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(3), pages 455-472.
    7. Hansen, S. & Lindberg, S., 1997. "Agency Costs, Financial Deregulation, and Corporate Investment - An Euler Equation Approach to Panel Data for Swedish Firms," Papers 1997-20, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    8. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    9. Sangeeta Pratap & Silvio Rendon, 2003. "Firm Investment in Imperfect Capital Markets: A Structural Estimation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(3), pages 513-545, July.
    10. Sean Cleary, 1999. "The Relationship between Firm Investment and Financial Status," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 673-692, April.
    11. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    12. Hansen, Sten, 1999. "Agency Costs, Credit Constraints and Corporate Investment," Working Paper Series 79, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    13. Sten, Hansen & Lindberg, Sara, 1997. "Agency Costs, Financial Deregulation, and Corporate Investment - An Euler Equation Approach to Panel Data for Swedish Firms," Working Paper Series 1997:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    14. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard, 1998. "Investment Facing Credit Rationing," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(0), pages 102-115, Supplemen.
    15. Leith, C., 1998. "Aggregate Investment, Tobin's q and Insolvency," Discussion Papers 9911, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    16. Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-275, May.
    17. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Introducing Capital Structure in a Production Economy: Implications for Investment, Debt and Dividends," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    18. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    19. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    20. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    21. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:1131-1147 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    24. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John T. Addison & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel & Joachim Wagner, 2007. "Do Works Councils Inhibit Investment?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 60(2), pages 187-203, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kirchesch, Kai, 2004. "Financial Risks, Bankruptcy Probabilities, and the Investment Behaviour of Enterprises," HWWA Discussion Papers 299, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    2. Quader, Syed Manzur, 2017. "Differential effect of liquidity constraints on firm growth," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 20-29.
    3. Milos Markovic & Michael A. Stemmer, 2017. "Firm Growth Dynamics and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Serbian Firms," Post-Print halshs-01489222, HAL.
    4. Syed Manzur Quader, 2017. "Differential effect of liquidity constraints on firm growth," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 20-29, January.
    5. Hansen, Sten, 1999. "Agency Costs, Credit Constraints and Corporate Investment," Working Paper Series 79, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Carpenter, Robert E. & Guariglia, Alessandra, 2008. "Cash flow, investment, and investment opportunities: New tests using UK panel data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1894-1906, September.
    7. Sevcan Yesiltas, 2009. "Financing Constraints and Investment: The Case of Turkish Manufacturing Firms," 2009 Meeting Papers 874, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Guariglia, Alessandra, 2008. "Internal financial constraints, external financial constraints, and investment choice: Evidence from a panel of UK firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1795-1809, September.
    9. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    10. Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 1999. "Investment: Fundamentals and Finance," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 223-274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Dasgupta, Sudipto & Sengupta, Kunal, 2007. "Corporate liquidity, investment and financial constraints: Implications from a multi-period model," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 151-174, April.
    12. Becchetti, Leonardo & Castelli, Annalisa & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2008. "Investment-cash flow sensitivities, credit rationing and financing constraints," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2008, Bank of Finland.
    13. Bhagat, Sanjai & Moyen, Nathalie & Suh, Inchul, 2005. "Investment and internal funds of distressed firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 449-472, June.
    14. Baños-Caballero, Sonia & García-Teruel, Pedro J. & Martínez-Solano, Pedro, 2014. "Working capital management, corporate performance, and financial constraints," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 332-338.
    15. Filipe Silva & Carlos Carreira, 2012. "Measuring Firms’ Financial Constraints: A Rough Guide," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 36, pages 23-46, December.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Günay, Hüseyin & Kılınç, Mustafa, 2015. "Credit market imperfections and business cycle asymmetries in Turkey," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 79-98.
    18. Cafer Kaplan & Erdal Ozmen & Cihan Yalcin, 2006. "The Determinants and Implications of Financial Asset Holdings of Non-Financial Firms in Turkey : An Emprical Investigation," Working Papers 0606, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    19. Laeven, Luc, 2000. "Does financial liberalization relax financing constraints on firms ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2467, The World Bank.
    20. Becchetti, Leonardo & Castelli, Annalisa & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2008. "Investment-cash flow sensitivities, credit rationing and financing constraints," Research Discussion Papers 15/2008, Bank of Finland.
    21. Leonardo Becchetti & Annalisa Castelli & Iftekhar Hasan, 2010. "Investment–cash flow sensitivities, credit rationing and financing constraints in small and medium-sized firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 467-497, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Economics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:hwwadp:26185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hwwaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.