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Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies

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  • Juncal Cunado
  • Soojin Jo
  • Fernando Perez de Gracia

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks in four of the largest oil-consuming Asian economies, using a structural vector autoregressive model. We identify three different types of oil shocks via sign restrictions: an oil supply shock, an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil-specific demand shock. The main results suggest that economic activity and prices respond very differently to oil price shocks depending on their type. In addition, a country’s oil-importing and -exporting status in the world oil market affects the transmission of shocks. Finally, subsample analysis shows a possible structural break in Japan and South Korea for all three types of oil shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Juncal Cunado & Soojin Jo & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2015. "Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies," Staff Working Papers 15-23, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:15-23
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    Keywords

    Econometric and statistical methods; International topics;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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