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Cyclicality in the Prices of Tropical Crops

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  • Gilbert, Christopher L.

Abstract

The episode of high food prices in the period from 2007 and the more recent post‐lockdown commodity price resurgence have prompted discussion of commodity price cycles. Tropical commodities, particularly tree crop commodities, stand out as the most likely to exhibit cyclical patterns. The paper uses annual data for cocoa, coffee and sugar extending back into the middle of the nineteenth century to attempt to identify long cycles. I compare results obtained from the bandpass filter decomposition with those generated by the unobserved components model. Both procedure rely on separation of trend and cycle. This is straightforward in sugar, where the trend is well defined, but more problematic in coffee and, especially so in cocoa. Some evidence is found for a 25 year cycle in all three commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert, Christopher L., 2022. "Cyclicality in the Prices of Tropical Crops," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321165, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc22:321165
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.321165
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    1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    2. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    3. Gelb, Alan H, 1979. "A Spectral Analysis of Coffee Market Oscillations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(2), pages 495-514, June.
    4. Gilbert, Christopher L., 1996. "International Commodity Agreements: An obituary notice," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, January.
    5. Labys, W C & Lesourd, J B & Badillo, D, 1998. "The existence of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 147-155, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2024. "Do supercycles dominate commodity price movements?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).

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    Demand and Price Analysis; Production Economics;

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