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The importance of spatial, temporal and social scales in Integrated modeling; simulating the effects of climatic change on district- and farm-level decision making in the Danube catchment area

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  • Apfelbeck, Josef
  • Huigen, Marco
  • Krimly, Tatjana

Abstract

Many scientific publications discussing the effects of climate change on the agricultural system express these in terms of changing crop production at coarse spatial and temporal scales. But in agro-economy, where crop production is the result of the interaction between bio-physical and management components, the temporal drivers operate at much smaller resolutions. Climate change affects the agricultural system via the interrelated, bio-physical layers of air, water, soil and crops. Furthermore, it influences the farm-system manager in their choice of their crops. In our paper the main question is how to deal systematically with the different time extents and time resolutions when studying agricultural management impacts due to climatic change. Agent based modeling offers an elegant way to tackle such challenges, where agents represent simplified farm managers. The agricultural management model is dynamically connected to a regional agro-economic model, a ground water model, a crop growth model and a soil model. Hence, we endogonize climatic change and make its effects a (risk)-factor in the agents considerations along different temporal scales. This paper reports on the fundamental issues regarding use of different temporal modeling scales with several clear practical examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Apfelbeck, Josef & Huigen, Marco & Krimly, Tatjana, 2007. "The importance of spatial, temporal and social scales in Integrated modeling; simulating the effects of climatic change on district- and farm-level decision making in the Danube catchment area," 81st Annual Conference, April 2-4, 2007, Reading University, UK 7984, Agricultural Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aes007:7984
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.7984
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balmann, Alfons & Happe, Kathrin & Kellermann, Konrad & Kleingarn, Anne, 2001. "Adjustment Costs Of Agri-Environmental Policy Switchings - A Multi-Agent Approach," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20506, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Berger, Thomas, 2001. "Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: a simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes and policy analysis," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 245-260, September.
    3. Joshua M. Epstein & Robert L. Axtell, 1996. "Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550253, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martinsohn, Maria & Hansen, Heiko, 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Economics of Dairy Farming – a Review and Evaluation," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(02), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Henseler, Martin & Wirsig, Alexander & Herrmann, Sylvia & Krimly, Tatjana & Dabbert, Stephan, 2009. "Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 100(1-3), pages 31-42, April.
    3. Roland Barthel & Tim Reichenau & Tatjana Krimly & Stephan Dabbert & Karl Schneider & Wolfram Mauser, 2012. "Integrated Modeling of Global Change Impacts on Agriculture and Groundwater Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(7), pages 1929-1951, May.
    4. Martinsohn, Maria & Hansen, Heiko, 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Economics of Dairy Farming – a Review and Evaluation," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 61(2).
    5. Roland Barthel & Stephan Janisch & Darla Nickel & Aleksandar Trifkovic & Thomas Hörhan, 2010. "Using the Multiactor-Approach in G lowa-Danube to Simulate Decisions for the Water Supply Sector Under Conditions of Global Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(2), pages 239-275, January.

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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management;

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