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Bayes Estimates of Time to Organic Certification

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  • Hattam, Caroline
  • Holloway, Garth J.

Abstract

The adoption of organic production has increased dramatically over recent years, especially in less developed countries. However, little information is available about who adopts, the difficulties they face in converting and how these factors vary over time. Using small-scale avocado producers (<15ha) from Michoacán, Mexico as a case study, this paper explores the factors affecting the time-to-adoption of organic production and certification, drawing from five parametric descriptions of the data. These models are implemented using a Bayesian approach and advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The results indicate that additional sources of income, together with membership of producers' associations, higher levels of education and experience of export markets, other than the US, have a positive effect on the adoption decision. Labour requirements and administrative capacity appear to be unimportant, while information sources and the frequency of contact with these sources have a varied, but largely negative effect on the probability of adoption. These findings raise a number of questions about the future of organic production in Mexico and the avocado zone, not least how to overcome credit and information constraints, but more importantly whether aiming for the organic market is a viable production strategy for small-scale producers.

Suggested Citation

  • Hattam, Caroline & Holloway, Garth J., 2007. "Bayes Estimates of Time to Organic Certification," 81st Annual Conference, April 2-4, 2007, Reading University, UK 7979, Agricultural Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aes007:7979
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.7979
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Doris Läpple, 2010. "Adoption and Abandonment of Organic Farming: An Empirical Investigation of the Irish Drystock Sector," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 697-714, September.
    2. Zein Kallas & Teresa Serra & José Maria Gil, 2010. "Farmers’ objectives as determinants of organic farming adoption: the case of Catalonian vineyard production," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(5), pages 409-423, September.
    3. Ahsanuzzaman, Ahsanuzzaman, 2015. "Duration Analysis of Technology Adoption in Bangladeshi Agriculture," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 200406, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Lapple, Doris & Donnellan, Trevor, 2009. "Adoption and Abandonment of Organic Farming: An Empirical Investigation of the Irish Drystock Sector," 83rd Annual Conference, March 30 - April 1, 2009, Dublin, Ireland 51062, Agricultural Economics Society.
    5. Läpple, Doris & Rensburg, Tom Van, 2011. "Adoption of organic farming: Are there differences between early and late adoption?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1406-1414, May.

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    Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management;

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