IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aare09/47626.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The role of real options analysis in the design of a greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme

Author

Listed:
  • Lambie, Neil Ross

Abstract

Analysing the effect of a greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme (ETS) on energy-intensive industries using a simple model of the long-run equilibrium fails to fully capture the design implications of a scheme. When we allow for imperfect market structures and uncertainty, it is more useful to focus on how an industry is affected by the scheme’s design in moving to its long-run equilibrium. A real options modelling approach that analyses how firms in these industries are likely to respond to an ETS through their investment behaviour is proposed as a more insightful method for public policy analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Lambie, Neil Ross, 2009. "The role of real options analysis in the design of a greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 47626, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare09:47626
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.47626
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/47626/files/Lambie.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.47626?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hubbard, R Glenn & Kashyap, Anil K, 1992. "Internal Net Worth and the Investment Process: An Application to U.S. Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 506-534, June.
    2. Dennis W. Carlton, 2004. "Why Barriers to Entry Are Barriers to Understanding," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 466-470, May.
    3. Robert W. Hahn, 1984. "Market Power and Transferable Property Rights," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 753-765.
    4. Chernyavs'ka, Liliya & Gullì, Francesco, 2008. "Marginal CO2 cost pass-through under imperfect competition in power markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 408-421, December.
    5. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayova, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael & Gusti, Mykola, 2008. "Investment under market and climate policy uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(8), pages 708-721, August.
    6. R. E. Caves & M. E. Porter, 1977. "From Entry Barriers to Mobility Barriers: Conjectural Decisions and Contrived Deterrence to New Competition," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 91(2), pages 241-261.
    7. Gilbert, Richard J., 1989. "Mobility barriers and the value of incumbency," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: R. Schmalensee & R. Willig (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 475-535, Elsevier.
    8. Regina Betz & Misato Sato, 2006. "Emissions trading: lessons learnt from the 1st phase of the EU ETS and prospects for the 2nd phase," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 351-359, July.
    9. John Pezzey, 2003. "Emission Taxes and Tradeable Permits A Comparison of Views on Long-Run Efficiency," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 26(2), pages 329-342, October.
    10. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice B. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, "undated". "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    11. Conrad, Klaus & Wang, Jianmin, 1993. "The effect of emission taxes and abatement subsidies on market structure," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 499-518.
    12. Kling, Catherine L. & Zhao, Jinhua, 2000. "On the long-run efficiency of auctioned vs. free permits," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 235-238, November.
    13. Jung, Chulho & Krutilla, Kerry & Boyd, Roy, 1996. "Incentives for Advanced Pollution Abatement Technology at the Industry Level: An Evaluation of Policy Alternatives," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 95-111, January.
    14. John Pezzey, 1992. "The Symmetry between Controlling Pollution by Price and Controlling It by Quantity," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 983-991, November.
    15. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521744447 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Dale Jorgenson, 1967. "The Theory of Investment Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Determinants of Investment Behavior, pages 129-175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521700801 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Paul Koutstaal, 1997. "economic policy and climate change," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1316.
    19. Quinn Weninger & Richard E. Just, 2002. "Firm Dynamics with Tradable Output Permits," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(3), pages 572-584.
    20. Stavins, Robert, 2004. "Environmental Economics," RFF Working Paper Series dp-04-54, Resources for the Future.
    21. Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1992. "Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-29, January.
    22. Demsetz, Harold, 1982. "Barriers to Entry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 47-57, March.
    23. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521633574 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    25. Montero, Juan-Pablo, 2002. "Permits, Standards, and Technology Innovation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 23-44, July.
    26. Gene Mumy, 1980. "Long-run efficiency and property rights sharing for pollution control," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 59-74, January.
    27. Gonzalo Cortazar & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Marcelo Salinas, 1998. "Evaluating Environmental Investments: A Real Options Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1059-1070, August.
    28. Jos Sijm & Karsten Neuhoff & Yihsu Chen, 2006. "CO 2 cost pass-through and windfall profits in the power sector," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 49-72, January.
    29. Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2001. "Environmental Policy and Firm Behavior: Abatement Investment and Location Decisions under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," NBER Chapters, in: Behavioral and Distributional Effects of Environmental Policy, pages 281-308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Herman Vollebergh & Jan Vries & Paul Koutstaal, 1997. "Hybrid carbon incentive mechanisms and political acceptability," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(1), pages 43-63, January.
    31. Cremer, Helmuth & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 1999. "On the taxation of polluting products in a differentiated industry," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 575-594, March.
    32. Opler, Tim & Pinkowitz, Lee & Stulz, Rene & Williamson, Rohan, 1999. "The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-46, April.
    33. Preston R. Fee & Hugo M. Mialon & Michael A. Williams, 2004. "What Is a Barrier to Entry?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 461-465, May.
    34. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    35. Lawrence H. Seltzer, 1932. "The Mobility of Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 46(3), pages 496-508.
    36. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice C. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, 1996. "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 753-777.
    37. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    38. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei, 1994. "What do firms do with cash windfalls?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 337-360, December.
    39. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-288, March.
    40. R. H. Coase, 2013. "The Problem of Social Cost," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 837-877.
    41. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 2000. "What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-154, April.
    42. Rchard Schmalensee, 2004. "Sunk Costs and Antitrust Barriers to Entry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 471-475, May.
    43. Alex Triantis & Adam Borison, 2001. "Real Options: State Of The Practice," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(2), pages 8-24, June.
    44. Laurikka, Harri, 2006. "Option value of gasification technology within an emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3916-3928, December.
    45. Laurikka, Harri & Koljonen, Tiina, 2006. "Emissions trading and investment decisions in the power sector--a case study in Finland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1063-1074, June.
    46. Slade, Margaret E., 2001. "Valuing Managerial Flexibility: An Application of Real-Option Theory to Mining Investments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 193-233, March.
    47. repec:bla:jecsur:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:119-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Peter Cramton & Suzi Kerr, 1999. "The Distributional Effects of Carbon Regulation: Why Auctioned Carbon Permits are Attractive and Feasible," Papers of Peter Cramton 99eedecr, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised Feb 1998.
    49. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    50. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521311120 is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Worthington, Paula R, 1995. "Investment, Cash Flow, and Sunk Costs," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 49-61, March.
    52. Spulber, Daniel F., 1985. "Effluent regulation and long-run optimality," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-116, June.
    53. Porter, Robert H, 1991. "A Review Essay on Handbook of Industrial Organization," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 553-572, June.
    54. Driver, Ciaran & Whelan, Brendan, 2001. "The effect of business risk on manufacturing investment: Sectoral survey evidence from Ireland," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 403-412, April.
    55. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521322249 is not listed on IDEAS
    56. Richard E. Caves, 1998. "Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1947-1982, December.
    57. R. Glenn Hubbard & Anil K. Kashyap & Toni M. Whited, 1993. "Internal Finance and Firm Investment," NBER Working Papers 4392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom & Yang, Ming, 2007. "Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5766-5773, November.
    59. Misiolek, Walter S. & Elder, Harold W., 1989. "Exclusionary manipulation of markets for pollution rights," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 156-166, March.
    60. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lambie, Neil Ross, 2010. "Understanding the effect of an emissions trading scheme on electricity generator investment and retirement behaviour: the proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(2), pages 1-15.
    2. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    3. John Pezzey, 2003. "Emission Taxes and Tradeable Permits A Comparison of Views on Long-Run Efficiency," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 26(2), pages 329-342, October.
    4. Pezzey, John C.V., 2001. "Distributing the Value of a Country’s Tradeable Carbon Permits," 2001 Conference (45th), January 23-25, 2001, Adelaide, Australia 125832, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Serven, Luis, 1997. "Uncertainty, instability, and irreversible investment : theory, evidence, and lessons for Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1722, The World Bank.
    6. Requate, Till, 2005. "Environmental Policy under Imperfect Competition: A Survey," Economics Working Papers 2005-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    7. Oksanen, Olli-Pekka, 2006. "Are Foreign Investments Replacing Domestic Investments? - Evidence from Finnish Manufacturing," Discussion Papers 1001, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    8. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2003. "Option Value, Policy Uncertainty, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision," HWWA Discussion Papers 234, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    9. Kotsios, Panayotis, 2010. "Regulatory Barriers to Entry in Industrial Sectors," MPRA Paper 27976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mercatanti, Andrea & Mäkinen, Taneli & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2019. "The role of financial factors for European corporate investment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 246-258.
    11. Vikash Gautam & Vikash Vaibhav, 2017. "Investment, Uncertainty and Credit Market Imperfection in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(2), pages 265-289, June.
    12. Ferguson, Andrew & Hu, Wei & Lam, Peter, 2022. "Political uncertainty and deal structure: Evidence from Australian mining project acquisitions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Robert W. Hahn & Robert N. Stavins, 2011. "The Effect of Allowance Allocations on Cap-and-Trade System Performance," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(S4), pages 267-294.
    14. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "The effect of oil price volatility on strategic investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 79-87, January.
    15. John A. List & Michael S. Haigh, 2010. "Investment Under Uncertainty: Testing the Options Model with Professional Traders," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 974-984, November.
    16. Pezzey, John C.V. & Jotzo, Frank, 2010. "Tax-Versus-Trading and Free Emission Shares as Issues for Climate Policy Design," Research Reports 95049, Australian National University, Environmental Economics Research Hub.
    17. Driver, Ciaran & Temple, Paul & Urga, Giovanni, 2008. "Real options -- delay vs. pre-emption: Do industrial characteristics matter?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-545, March.
    18. Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 1999. "Investment: Fundamentals and Finance," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 223-274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2003. "Structural modelling of financial constraints on investment: where do we stand?," Chapters, in: Paul Butzen & Catherine Fuss (ed.), Firms’ Investment and Finance Decisions, chapter 2, pages 40-58, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2008. "Firms' investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2337-2351.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aare09:47626. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.