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The Sub-Optimality Of The Beef Cycle

Author

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  • Hertzler, Greg
  • Cothern, James H.

Abstract

The supply of beef is investigated using spectral analysis. The 2-1/2 year lag from herd build up until production is realized requires decisions based on future prices. Producers react instead to past prices, and the cycle results. Optimal control applied to an investment model shows the cycle to be sub-optimal.

Suggested Citation

  • Hertzler, Greg & Cothern, James H., 1979. "The Sub-Optimality Of The Beef Cycle," 1979 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, Pullman, Washington 278293, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea79:278293
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278293
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arnold B. Larson, 1964. "The Hog Cycle as Harmonic Motion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 46(2), pages 375-386.
    2. Shlomo Reutlinger, 1966. "Short-Run Beef Supply Response," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 48(4_Part_I), pages 909-919.
    3. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
    4. Hovav Talpaz, 1974. "Multi-Frequency Cobweb Model: Decomposition of the Hog Cycle," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(1), pages 38-49.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bentley, Ernest & Shumway, C. Richard, 1981. "Adaptive Planning Over the Cattle Price Cycle," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 139-148, July.
    2. Roe, J.E. & Ramanan, D.D. & Hornak, J.P. & Kotlarchyk, M., 1996. "Application of dense microemulsions to magnetic resonance imaging," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 359-367.

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    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

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