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Multi-Frequency Cobweb Model: Decomposition of the Hog Cycle

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  • Hovav Talpaz

Abstract

The Cobweb Theorem and the harmonic motion models are extended and integrated to form a multi-frequency cobweb model explaining the U. S. hog production cycle. The cycle is estimated by a finite, time-based Fourier Series allowing amplitude and frequency analysis. Six different cycles are discovered operating simultaneously in the attempt to reach a market equilibrium. An independent distributed lag model is estimated, verifying the fundamental hypothesis of the model. The implication is that improved industry performance can be efficiently achieved by control policies to dampen the harmful long period cycles, leaving the short ones unaffected.

Suggested Citation

  • Hovav Talpaz, 1974. "Multi-Frequency Cobweb Model: Decomposition of the Hog Cycle," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(1), pages 38-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:56:y:1974:i:1:p:38-49.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1239345
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Walter C. Labys & Dominique Badillo & Jean-Baptiste Lesourd, 1998. "Cycles à moyen terme des prix mondiaux des matières premières agricoles," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 16-21.
    2. Gangyi WANG & Runxiang SI & CuiXia LI & GuiTong ZHANG & Nengyue ZHU, 2018. "Asymmetric price transmission effect of corn on hog: evidence from China," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 186-196.
    3. Poitras, Geoffrey, 2023. "Cobweb Theory, Market Stability, And Price Expectations," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 137-161, March.
    4. Shonkwiler, J.S. & Spreen, T.H., 1986. "Bootstrapping The Hog Cycle," 1986 Annual Meeting, July 27-30, Reno, Nevada 278160, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Holst, Carsten & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2012. "International Synchronisation of the Pork Cycle," Acta Oeconomica et Informatica, Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra (FEM SPU), vol. 15(1), pages 1-6, March.
    6. Jean-Paul Chavas, 2021. "The dynamics and volatility of prices in multiple markets: a quantile approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1607-1628, April.
    7. Bentley, Ernest & Shumway, C. Richard, 1981. "Adaptive Planning Over the Cattle Price Cycle," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 139-148, July.
    8. repec:rri:wpaper:200501 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Atle Oglend & Frank Asche, 2016. "Cyclical non-stationarity in commodity prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1465-1479, December.
    10. Spreen, Thomas H. & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 1981. "The Hog Cycle Revisited," 1981 Annual Meeting, July 26-29, Clemson, South Carolina 279384, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Walter Labys, 2005. "Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2005-01, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    12. Griffith, Garry R., 1977. "A Note On The Pig Cycle In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 21(2), pages 1-10, August.
    13. Hertzler, Greg & Cothern, James H., 1979. "The Sub-Optimality Of The Beef Cycle," 1979 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, Pullman, Washington 278293, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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