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The economic impact of climate change on cash crop farms in Quebec and Ontario

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  • An, Ning
  • Thomassin, Paul J.

Abstract

This paper examines the economic impact of alternative climate change scenarios on representative cash crop farms in Quebec and Ontario. Mixed Integer Dynamic Linear Programming models are used to determine the annual optimal land and labor allocations over a 30 year time horizon. In the modeling process, five climate scenarios are modeled, along with different combinations of CO2 enhancement and water limitation. Parameters, such as crop prices, costs of production, and crop yields, are simulated and projected into the future using various methods, such as Monte Carlo simulation, Crystal Ball Predictor and DSSAT cropping system model. Rotation and diversification constraints, as well as participation in public risk management programs are also incorporated into the optimization procedures. The results show that the economic impact of climate change varies by scenario, with the CO2 effect and water limitation having a more significant effect than the specific climate scenarios. Technology development, as well as the public insurance programs can contribute to the reduction of economic vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • An, Ning & Thomassin, Paul J., 2015. "The economic impact of climate change on cash crop farms in Quebec and Ontario," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205702, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea15:205702
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.205702
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Chan, Chin Yee & Prager, Steven & Balie, Jean & Kozicka, Marta & Hareau, Guy & Valera, Harold Glenn & Tran, Nhuong & Wiebe, Keith & Diagne, Mandiaye & Alene, Arega, 2021. "The Future of Food Security, Nutrition and Health for Agri-food Systems Transformation," SocArXiv qgn9u, Center for Open Science.
    3. Maria Blanco & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Guna Salputra & Pilar Martinez, 2015. "Extension of the CAPRI model with an irrigation sub-module," JRC Research Reports JRC99828, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Innocent Ngiehnu Nchu & Jude Ndzifon Kimengsi & Gerald Kapp, 2019. "Diagnosing Climate Adaptation Constraints in Rural Subsistence Farming Systems in Cameroon: Gender and Institutional Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-16, July.
    5. Pradesha, Angga & Robinson, Sherman, 2016. "CLIMATE CHANGE AND RICE SELF-SUFFICIENCY POLICY: Exploring Adaptation Strategy through Agricultural Policy Reform in the Philippines," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236029, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Cheng Li & Xiaojie Mao & Mingxing Zheng & Mingyang Han, 2024. "Adapting Seasonal Rice Cultivation Strategies for Food Security in Response to Climate Change Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-15, August.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management;
    All these keywords.

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