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Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?

Author

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  • Ramirez, Octavio A.
  • Misra, Sukant K.
  • Field, James E.

Abstract

This paper revisits the issue of crop yield distributions using improved model specifications, estimation and testing procedures that address the methodological concerns raised in recent literature that could have invalidated previous conclusions of yield non-normality. It shows beyond reasonable doubt that some crop yield distributions are non-normal, kurtotic and right or left skewed, depending on the circumstances. A procedure to jointly estimate non-normal farm- and aggregate-level yield distributions with similar means but different variances is illustrated, and the consequences of incorrectly assuming yield normality are explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramirez, Octavio A. & Misra, Sukant K. & Field, James E., 2001. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20695, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea01:20695
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20695
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott M. Swinton & Robert P. King, 1991. "Evaluating Robust Regression Techniques for Detrending Crop Yield Data with Nonnormal Errors," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(2), pages 446-451.
    2. Richard E. Just & Quinn Weninger, 1999. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 287-304.
    3. Octavio A. Ramírez, 1997. "Estimation and Use of a Multivariate Parametric Model for Simulating Heteroskedastic, Correlated, Nonnormal Random Variables: The Case of Corn Belt Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 191-205.
    4. Charles B. Moss & J. S. Shonkwiler, 1993. "Estimating Yield Distributions with a Stochastic Trend and Nonnormal Errors," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1056-1062.
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    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

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