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Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Agricultural Yield Data with an Application to Pricing Crop Insurance Contracts

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  • Vitor A. Ozaki
  • Sujit K. Ghosh
  • Barry K. Goodwin
  • Ricardo Shirota

Abstract

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Paraná (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited. Copyright 2008, Oxford University Press.

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  • Vitor A. Ozaki & Sujit K. Ghosh & Barry K. Goodwin & Ricardo Shirota, 2008. "Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Agricultural Yield Data with an Application to Pricing Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 951-961.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:90:y:2008:i:4:p:951-961
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01153.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hainaut, Donatien, 2018. "Hedging of crop harvest with derivatives on temperature," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2018012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    3. Niyibizi, Bart & Brorsen, Wade & Park, Eunchun, 2018. "Using Bayesian Kriging for Spatial Smoothing of Trends in the Means and Variances of Crop Yield Densities," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274403, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Shen, Zhiwei, 2016. "Adaptive local parametric estimation of crop yields: implication for crop insurance ratemaking," 156th Seminar, October 4, 2016, Wageningen, The Netherlands 249984, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Qing Sun & Zaiqiang Yang & Xianghong Che & Wei Han & Fangmin Zhang & Fang Xiao, 2018. "Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 69-88, March.
    6. Chen, Shu-Ling & Miranda, Mario J., 2006. "Modeling Yield Distribution In High Risk Counties: Application To Texas Upland Cotton," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21392, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Awondo, Sebastain Nde & Datta, Gauri S. & Ramirez, Octavio A. & Fonsah, Esendugue Greg, 2012. "Estimation of crop yield distribution and Insurance Premium using Shrinkage Estimator: A Hierarchical Bayes and Small Area Estimation Approach," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 126778, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Girante, Maria Joana & Goodwin, Barry K., 2009. "The Acreage and Borrowing Effects of Direct Payments Under Uncertainty: A Simulation Approach," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49349, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Jean-Sauveur Ay, 2015. "Information sur l’hétérogénéité de la terre et délégation de la régulation foncière," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 125(3), pages 453-474.
    10. Park, Eunchun & Harri, Ardian & Coble, Keith H., 2022. "Estimating Crop Yield Densities for Counties with Missing Data," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(3), September.
    11. Ozaki, Vitor & Campos, Rogério, 2017. "Reduzindo a Incerteza no Mercado de Seguros: Uma Abordagem via Informações de Sensoriamento Remoto e Atuária," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(4), December.
    12. Bokusheva, Raushan & Breustedt, Gunnar, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Weather-Based Index Insurance and Area-Yield Crop Insurance: How Reliable are ex post Predictions for Yield Risk Reduction?," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 51(2), pages 1-22, May.
    13. Ramsey, A., 2018. "Conditional Distributions of Crop Yields: A Bayesian Approach for Characterizing Technological Change," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277253, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Wang, Xin & Lim, Michael K. & Ouyang, Yanfeng, 2015. "Infrastructure deployment under uncertainties and competition: The biofuel industry case," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-15.
    15. A Ford Ramsey, 2020. "Probability Distributions of Crop Yields: A Bayesian Spatial Quantile Regression Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 220-239, January.
    16. Chen, Shu-Ling & Miranda, Mario J., 2008. "Modeling Texas Dryland Cotton Yields, With Application to Crop Insurance Actuarial Rating," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 239-252, April.
    17. Diao Panpan & Zhang Zhonggen, 2015. "Premium Rate Design and Risk Regionalization for the Policy-Based Wheat Insurance of Henan Province in China," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 203-229, July.
    18. Hennessy, David A., 2009. "Crop Yield Skewness and the Normal Distribution," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-19, April.
    19. Hainaut, Donatien, 2019. "Hedging of crop harvest with derivatives on temperature," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 98-114.
    20. Maria Joana Girante & Barry K. Goodwin, 2009. "The Acreage and Borrowing Effects ok Direct Payments Under Uncertainty: A Simulation," NIPE Working Papers 14/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    21. Ghahremanzadeh, Mohammad & Mohammadrezaei, Rassul & Dashti, Ghader & Ainollahi, Moharram, 2018. "Designing a whole-farm revenue insurance for agricultural crops in Zanjan province of Iran," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(02), January.

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