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Long Cycles Revisited. An Essay in Econometric History

Author

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  • Claude Diebolt

    (CNRS, Université Louis Pasteur de Strasbourg, Université Montpellier I & Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin.)

Abstract

This paper presents a cliometric application of fractional integrated processes to socio-economic time series for France and Germany in the 19th and 20th centuries. The analysis leads to a significant result: no short or long term cycle appears as the dominant constituent.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Diebolt, 2005. "Long Cycles Revisited. An Essay in Econometric History," Working Papers 05-05, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:05-05
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    File URL: http://www.cliometrie.org/images/wp/AFC_WP_05-2005.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
    3. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    4. Valderio A. Reisen, 1994. "ESTIMATION OF THE FRACTIONAL DIFFERENCE PARAMETER IN THE ARIMA(p, d, q) MODEL USING THE SMOOTHED PERIODOGRAM," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 335-350, May.
    5. Velasco, Carlos, 1999. "Non-stationary log-periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 325-371, August.
    6. Christos Agiakloglou & Paul Newbold & Mark Wohar, 1993. "Bias In An Estimator Of The Fractional Difference Parameter," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 235-246, May.
    7. Alfred Kleinknecht, 1987. "Innovation Patterns in Crisis and Prosperity," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-11175-6.
    8. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
    9. Claude Diebolt & Bachir El Murr, 2004. "Educational Development and Labour Markets," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 127-145, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James B. Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2017. "Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 127-151, January.
    2. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2008. "New international evidence on the cyclical behaviour of output: Kuznets swings reconsidered," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 42(6), pages 719-737, December.
    3. Claude DIEBOLT & Jamel TRABELSI, 2009. "Human Capital and French Macroeconomic Growth in the Long Run," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 40, pages 901-917, May.
    4. Claude Diebolt & Karine Pellier, 2008. "Analyse spectrale de l’évolution de longue période des brevets en France, en Allemagne, en Grande-Bretagne, aux Etats-Unis et au Japon (17ème-20ème siècles)," Working Papers 08-09, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    5. Claude Diebolt & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2014. "Econometric history of wages in France [Économétrie historique des salaires en France]," Post-Print halshs-03394949, HAL.
    6. Claude DIEBOLT & Magali JAOUL-GRAMMARE, 2014. "Économétrie historique des salaires en France: une relecture des années charnières," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 49, pages 1293-1308, Août.
    7. Ralph Hippe & Damien Demailly & Claude Diebolt, 2022. "The Digital Transition for a Sustainable Mobility Regime? A Long-Run Perspective," Working Papers 05-22, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

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