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House prices and land prices under the microscope: a property-level analysis for the Washington, DC area

Author

Listed:
  • Edward J. Pinto

    (American Enterprise Institute)

  • Stephen D. Oliner

    (American Enterprise Institute)

  • Morris A. Davis

    (American Enterprise Institute)

Abstract

In this paper, we use a new property-level dataset to estimate the price of land since 2000 for nearly 600,000 detached single-family homes in the Washington, DC metro area. We employ these estimates to characterize the recent boom/bust cycle in land prices and house prices in the Washington area at a fine level of geography. The data show that land prices were more volatile than house prices everywhere, but especially so in the areas where land was inexpensive in 2000. In those areas, the land share of property value jumped during the boom, and this rise in the land share was a useful predictor of the subsequent crash in house prices. These results highlight the value of focusing on land for assessing house-price risk. In ongoing work, we are exploring how much of the spatial variation in land-price changes can be linked to high-risk mortgage lending and fundamentals such as housing rents, income growth, and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward J. Pinto & Stephen D. Oliner & Morris A. Davis, 2014. "House prices and land prices under the microscope: a property-level analysis for the Washington, DC area," AEI Economics Working Papers 415524, American Enterprise Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:aei:rpaper:415524
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morris A. Davis, 2010. "housing and the business cycle," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    3. Steven C. Bourassa & Donald R. Haurin & Jessica L. Haurin & Martin Hoesli & Jian Sun, 2009. "House Price Changes and Idiosyncratic Risk: The Impact of Property Characteristics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 259-278, June.
    4. Schulz, Rainer & Werwatz, Axel, 2011. "Is there an equilibrating relationship between house prices and replacement cost? Empirical evidence from Berlin," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 288-302, May.
    5. Stuart S. Rosenthal, 1999. "Residential Buildings And The Cost Of Construction: New Evidence On The Efficiency Of The Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 288-302, May.
    6. Davis, Morris A. & Palumbo, Michael G., 2008. "The price of residential land in large US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 352-384, January.
    7. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    8. Nichols, Joseph B. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Mulhall, Michael R., 2013. "Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 57-76.
    9. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    10. Dorsey, Robert E. & Hu, Haixin & Mayer, Walter J. & Wang, Hui-chen, 2010. "Hedonic versus repeat-sales housing price indexes for measuring the recent boom-bust cycle," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 75-93, June.
    11. Kok, Nils & Monkkonen, Paavo & Quigley, John M., 2014. "Land use regulations and the value of land and housing: An intra-metropolitan analysis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 136-148.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing finance; US Housing Market; Housing Center: Research;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics

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