IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arz/wpaper/eres2012_059.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Regional differences in housing price dynamics: panel data evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Elias Oikarinen
  • Janne Engblom

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine empirically the regional differences in housing price dynamics by estimating panel data models that allow for regional variation in the dynamics. In particular, we investigate whether there are large regional differences in the housing price ìmomentumîù (ìbubble builderî) and in the speed of adjustment of housing prices towards their long-run fundamental level (ìbubble bursterî). Using annual data for 14 Finnish cities for the period 1988-2009, we estimate fixed-effects models that include both main effects and interaction effects to allow for regional differences in the dynamics. While, the results indicate that the differences across regions are generally quite small in Finland, the analysis shows that the adjustment towards the long-run sustainable price level is significantly slower in the Helsinki Metropolitan area (HMA), the largest urban area in the country, than in the other cities. The results also provide evidence for cointegration between housing prices and income.

Suggested Citation

  • Elias Oikarinen & Janne Engblom, 2012. "Regional differences in housing price dynamics: panel data evidence," ERES eres2012_059, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2012_059
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2012-059
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oikarinen, Elias & Peltola, Risto & Valtonen, Eero, 2015. "Regional variation in the elasticity of supply of housing, and its determinants: The case of a small sparsely populated country," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 18-30.
    2. Todd Kuethe & Valerien Pede, 2011. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-temporal Analysis Using US State-level Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 563-574.
    3. John M. Clapp & Walter Dolde & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 1995. "Imperfect Information and Investor Inferences From Housing Price Dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(3), pages 239-269, September.
    4. Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 41-54.
    5. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 160-173, September.
    6. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    7. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing: The Finnish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 747-756, April.
    8. Dusansky, Richard & Koc, Cagatay, 2007. "The capital gains effect in the demand for housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 287-298, March.
    9. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June.
    10. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
    11. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    12. G. Donald Jud & Dan T. Winkler, 2002. "The Dynamics of Metropolitan Housing Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 29-46.
    13. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, March.
    14. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Scognamiglio, Donato & Zhang, Sumei, 2011. "Land leverage and house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 134-144, March.
    15. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    16. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Household borrowing and metropolitan housing price dynamics - Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 126-139, June.
    17. Hirshleifer, David & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Li, Dongmei, 2013. "Innovative efficiency and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 632-654.
    18. Steven C. Bourassa & Donald R. Haurin & Jessica L. Haurin & Martin Hoesli & Jian Sun, 2009. "House Price Changes and Idiosyncratic Risk: The Impact of Property Characteristics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 259-278, June.
    19. Min Hwang & John M. Quigley, 2006. "Economic Fundamentals In Local Housing Markets: Evidence From U.S. Metropolitan Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 425-453, August.
    20. Davis, Morris A. & Palumbo, Michael G., 2008. "The price of residential land in large US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 352-384, January.
    21. Hort, Katinka, 1998. "The Determinants of Urban House Price Fluctuations in Sweden 1968-1994," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 93-120, June.
    22. Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
    23. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273, September.
    24. Owen Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Leverage and House-Price Dynamics in U.S. Cities," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(3), pages 498-514, Autumn.
    25. Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli & Lynn McAlevey, 2008. "House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 71-91, July.
    26. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    27. Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2006. "Construction Costs And The Supply Of Housing Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 661-680, October.
    28. Raphael W. Bostic & Stanley D. Longhofer & Christian L. Redfearn, 2007. "Land Leverage: Decomposing Home Price Dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 183-208, June.
    29. Harter-Dreiman, Michelle, 2004. "Drawing inferences about housing supply elasticity from house price responses to income shocks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 316-337, March.
    30. Kumar, Alok, 2009. "Hard-to-Value Stocks, Behavioral Biases, and Informed Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(6), pages 1375-1401, December.
    31. Røed Larsen, Erling & Weum, Steffen, 2008. "Testing the efficiency of the Norwegian housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 510-517, September.
    32. Eli Beracha & Hilla Skiba, 2011. "Momentum in Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 299-320, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elias Oikarinen & Janne Engblom, 2016. "Differences in housing price dynamics across cities: A comparison of different panel model specifications," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(11), pages 2312-2329, August.
    2. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Household borrowing and metropolitan housing price dynamics - Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 126-139, June.
    3. Oikarinen, Elias & Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Engblom, Janne, 2018. "U.S. metropolitan house price dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 54-69.
    4. Alessandra Canepa & Emilio Zanetti Chini & Huthaifa Alqaralleh, 2020. "Global Cities and Local Housing Market Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 671-697, November.
    5. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2016. "Persistence, mean reversion and non-linearities in the US housing prices over 1830--2013," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(34), pages 3244-3252, July.
    6. Oikarinen, Elias & Peltola, Risto & Valtonen, Eero, 2015. "Regional variation in the elasticity of supply of housing, and its determinants: The case of a small sparsely populated country," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 18-30.
    7. Nichols, Joseph B. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Mulhall, Michael R., 2013. "Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 57-76.
    8. Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier, 2015. "Elasticidad precio de la oferta inmobiliaria en el Gran Santiago [Housing supply elasticity in Greater Santiago]," MPRA Paper 65012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Elias Oikarinen, 2014. "Is Urban Land Price Adjustment More Sluggish than Housing Price Adjustment? Empirical Evidence," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 51(8), pages 1686-1706, June.
    10. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    11. Elias Oikarinen, 2009. "Dynamic linkages between housing and lot prices: Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Discussion Papers 53, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    12. Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 41-54.
    13. Davis, Morris A. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Pinto, Edward J. & Bokka, Sankar, 2017. "Residential land values in the Washington, DC metro area: New insights from big data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 224-246.
    14. Elias Oikarinen & Martin Hoesli & Camilo Serrano, 2013. "Do Public Real Estate Returns Really Lead Private Returns?," ERES eres2013_145, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    15. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Scognamiglio, Donato & Zhang, Sumei, 2011. "Land leverage and house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 134-144, March.
    16. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    17. Kajuth, Florian & Knetsch, Thomas A. & Pinkwart, Nicolas, 2013. "Assessing house prices in Germany: Evidence from an estimated stock-flow model using regional data," Discussion Papers 46/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Canepa, Alessandra & Zanetti Chini, Emilio & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa, 2019. "Modelling Housing Market Cycles in Global Cities," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201901, University of Turin.
    19. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Hongfei Sun, 2014. "Search, Liquidity, and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1172-1210, April.
    20. Rosés, Joan R., 2011. "Spanish housing markets during the first phase of the rural-urban transition process," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp11-08, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2012_059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Architexturez Imprints (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eressea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.