IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/adb/adbwps/469.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Working Paper 173 - Production and Conflict in Risky Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Kjell Hausken
  • Mthuli Ncube

Abstract

An incumbent allocates in period 1 of a two period game, a resource into production, fighting with the challenger, and producing public goods, which impact the probability of winning an election. In period 2 the incumbent may accept the election result, or a coalition or standoff may follow. We analyze the strategic choices. Econometric analysis of 653 African elections 1960-2010 shows that the incumbent wins with no contestation 64%, coalition 6%, and standoff 2%. The incumbent loses and accepts defeat 16%, coalition 12%, and standoff 0%. The impact of economic performance, education, political factors, natural resources, former-colonizer, etc, are scrutinized.

Suggested Citation

  • Kjell Hausken & Mthuli Ncube, 2013. "Working Paper 173 - Production and Conflict in Risky Elections," Working Paper Series 469, African Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:469
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Working_Paper_173_-_Production_and_Conflict_in_Risky_Elections.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew Ellman & Leonard Wantchekon, 2000. "Electoral Competition Under the Threat of Political Unrest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(2), pages 499-531.
    2. Skaperdas, Stergios, 1991. "Conflict and Attitudes toward Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 116-120, May.
    3. Kjell Hausken, 2005. "Production and Conflict Models Versus Rent-Seeking Models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 59-93, April.
    4. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1995. "Anarchy and Its Breakdown," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 26-52, February.
    5. Stergios Skaperdas, 1996. "Contest success functions (*)," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 7(2), pages 283-290.
    6. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kjell Hausken & Mthuli Ncube, 2016. "How Elections are Impacted by Production, Economic Growth and Conflict," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-29, March.
    2. Hausken, Kjell & Ncube, Mthuli, 2012. "Production and Conflict in Risky Elections," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/14, University of Stavanger.
    3. Hausken, Kjell, 2008. "Whether to attack a terrorist's resource stock today or tomorrow," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 548-564, November.
    4. Hausken, Kjell, 2008. "Strategic defense and attack for series and parallel reliability systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 856-881, April.
    5. Levitin, Gregory & Hausken, Kjell, 2009. "Intelligence and impact contests in systems with redundancy, false targets, and partial protection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(12), pages 1927-1941.
    6. Kjell Hausken & Jun Zhuang, 2011. "Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T -Period Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 46-70, March.
    7. Levitin, Gregory & Hausken, Kjell, 2008. "Protection vs. redundancy in homogeneous parallel systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(10), pages 1444-1451.
    8. Kjell Hausken, 2021. "Axiomatizing additive multi-effort contests," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(11), pages 1-12, November.
    9. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios, 2007. "Economics of Conflict: An Overview," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 649-709, Elsevier.
    10. Kjell Hausken & Vicki M. Bier & Jun Zhuang, 2009. "Defending Against Terrorism, Natural Disaster, and All Hazards," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Vicki M. M. Bier & M. Naceur Azaiez (ed.), Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats, chapter 4, pages 65-97, Springer.
    11. Kjell Hausken & Gregory Levitin, 2008. "Efficiency of Even Separation of Parallel Elements with Variable Contest Intensity," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1477-1486, October.
    12. Raul Caruso, 2008. "Reciprocity in the shadow of threat," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 55(1), pages 91-111, April.
    13. Kjell Hausken & Mthuli Ncube, 2013. "Working Paper 172 - Political Economy of Service Delivery: Monitoring versus Contestation," Working Paper Series 468, African Development Bank.
    14. Levitin, Gregory & Hausken, Kjell, 2010. "Separation in homogeneous systems with independent identical elements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 625-634, June.
    15. Kjell Hausken & Mthuli Ncube, 2014. "Political Economy of Service Delivery: Monitoring Versus Contestation," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 52(1), pages 68-84, March.
    16. Kjell Hausken, 2020. "Additive multi-effort contests," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 89(2), pages 203-248, September.
    17. Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E. & Rocco S, Claudio M. & Levitin, Gregory, 2009. "Optimal protection of general source–sink networks via evolutionary techniques," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(10), pages 1676-1684.
    18. Levitin, Gregory & Hausken, Kjell, 2009. "False targets efficiency in defense strategy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 155-162, April.
    19. Gregory Levitin & Kjell Hausken, 2013. "Parallel systems under two sequential attacks with contest intensity variation," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 21(1), pages 207-224, January.
    20. Kjell Hausken, 2016. "Gordon Tullock: A Nobel Prize left unbestowed," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 121-127, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:469. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adeleke Oluwole Salami (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afdbgci.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.