Paul Ormerod

Research output

Working papers

1. Nyman, Rickard & Kapadia, Sujit & Tuckett, David & Gregory, David & Ormerod, Paul & Smith, Robert, 2018. "News and narratives in financial systems: exploiting big data for systemic risk assessment," Bank of England working papers 704, Bank of England.
   • Nyman, Rickard & Kapadia, Sujit & Tuckett, David, 2021. "News and narratives in financial systems: Exploiting big data for systemic risk assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
2. Rickard Nyman & Paul Ormerod, 2017. "Predicting Economic Recessions Using Machine Learning Algorithms," Papers 1701.01428, arXiv.org.
3. Ormerod, Paul, 2015. "The economics of radical uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-40, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
   • Ormerod, Paul, 2015. "The economics of radical uncertainty," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-20.
4. Paul Ormerod & Rickard Nyman & David Tuckett, 2015. "Measuring Financial Sentiment to Predict Financial Instability: A New Approach based on Text Analysis," Papers 1508.05357, arXiv.org.
5. Rickard Nyman & Paul Ormerod, 2014. "Big Data, Socio-Psychological Theory, Algorithmic Text Analysis and Predicting the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index," Papers 1405.5695, arXiv.org.
6. Ormerod, Paul & Rosewell, Bridget & Phelps, Peter, 2009. "Inflation/unemployment regimes and the instability of the Phillips curve," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
   • P. Ormerod & B. Rosewell & P. Phelps, 2013. "Inflation/unemployment regimes and the instability of the Phillips curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1519-1531, April.
7. Paul Ormerod, 2008. "Random matrix theory and the evolution of business cycle synchronisation 1886-2006," Papers 0807.1771, arXiv.org.
   • Ormerod, Paul, 2008. "Random Matrix Theory and the Evolution of Business Cycle Synchronisation, 1886-2006," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-11, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
8. Paul Ormerod, 2008. "The evolution of EU business cycle synchronisation 1981-2007," Papers 0807.1831, arXiv.org.
9. Paul Ormerod, 2008. "Global recessions as a cascade phenomenon with heterogenous, interacting agents," Papers 0807.1639, arXiv.org.
10. R. Alexander Bentley & Paul Ormerod & Mark E. Madsen, 2008. "Shelf space strategy in long-tail markets," Papers 0808.1655, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2008.
11. Paul Ormerod, 2004. "Information cascades and the distribution of economic recessions in the United States," Papers cond-mat/0402648, arXiv.org.
12. Bridget Rosewell & Paul Ormerod, 2004. "How much can firms know?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 44, Society for Computational Economics.
13. paul ormerod, 2003. "The US Business Cycle: an agent-based model of heterogenous firms operating under uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 90, Society for Computational Economics.
14. William Cook & Paul Ormerod, 2002. "Power Law Distribution of the Frequency of Demises of U.S Firms," Papers cond-mat/0212186, arXiv.org.
    • Cook, William & Ormerod, Paul, 2003. "Power law distribution of the frequency of demises of US firms," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 207-212.
15. paul ormerod, & bridget rosewell & laurence smith, 2002. "An agent-based model of the evolution of competition and market structure," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 48, Society for Computational Economics.
16. Artis, Michael J & Ormerod, Paul, 1991. "Is There an `EMS' Effect in European Labour Markets?," CEPR Discussion Papers 598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

Articles

1. Paul Ormerod, 2018. "The Tyranny of Metrics by Jerry Z. Muller," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 294-295, June.
2. R. Alexander Bentley & Paul Ormerod & Damian J. Ruck, 2018. "Recent origin and evolution of obesity-income correlation across the United States," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, December.
3. Caiado, Camila C. S. & Ormerod, Paul, 2017. "Market Structure with Interacting Consumers," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 33-49, April.
4. Paul Ormerod, 2016. "Picking Up the Gauntlet: Richard Thaler's Defence of Behavioural Economics," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 91-101, February.
5. Paul Ormerod, 2016. "Science, the State and the City: Britain's Struggle to Succeed in Biotechnology by Geoffrey Owen and Michael M. Hopkins. Oxford University Press (2016), 272 pp. ISBN: 978-0198728009 (hb, £35.00)," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 399-401, October.
6. Paul Ormerod, 2016. "Corruption and economic resilience: recovery from the financial crisis in western economies," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 348-355, October.
7. Ormerod, Paul, 2015. "The economics of radical uncertainty," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-20.
   • Ormerod, Paul, 2015. "The economics of radical uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-40, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
8. Ormerod, Paul, 2015. "A Comment on Gintis and Helbing “Homo Socialis: An Analytical Core for Sociological Theoryâ€," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 2(1-2), pages 175-182, July.
9. Paul Ormerod, 2014. "Evolutionary Approaches to Privatisation," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 156-168, June.
10. Paul Ormerod, 2014. "The persistence of unemployment at the local area level: evidence from the US and the UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 28-30, January.
11. P. Ormerod & B. Rosewell & P. Phelps, 2013. "Inflation/unemployment regimes and the instability of the Phillips curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1519-1531, April.
    • Ormerod, Paul & Rosewell, Bridget & Phelps, Peter, 2009. "Inflation/unemployment regimes and the instability of the Phillips curve," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
12. Paul Ormerod, 2013. "Notas sobre un plan de estudios de economía del mundo real," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 15(29), pages 13-20, July-Dece.
13. R. Alexander Bentley & Paul Ormerod, 2012. "Accelerated Innovation And Increased Spatial Diversity Of Us Popular Culture," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01n02), pages 1-13.
14. Camila C.S. Caiado & Paul Ormerod, 2012. "The structure of economic connections between industries: non-scaling behaviour," International Journal of Complexity in Leadership and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1/2), pages 39-51.
15. Aditya Chakrabortty & Carlota Perez & Jim Watson & John Kay & Jonty Olliff‐Cooper & Matthew Lockwood & Paul Ormerod & Robert Rowthorn & Robin Murray & Tim Finch, 2011. "Debate: Time to start picking winners again?," Public Policy Review, Institute for Public Policy Research, vol. 17(4), pages 183-188, December.
16. R. Bentley & Michael O’Brien & Paul Ormerod, 2011. "Quality versus mere popularity: a conceptual map for understanding human behavior," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 10(2), pages 181-191, December.
17. Helen Jackson & Paul Ormerod, 2010. "Challenging The Empirical Empire," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 92-94, March.
18. Paul Ormerod, 2010. "Resilience after localeconomic shocks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 503-507.
19. Bentley, R. Alexander & Ormerod, Paul, 2010. "A rapid method for assessing social versus independent interest in health issues: A case study of 'bird flu' and 'swine flu'," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 482-485, August.
20. Paul Ormerod, 2010. "La crisis actual y la culpabilidad de la teoría macroeconómica," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 12(22), pages 111-128, January-J.
21. Paul Ormerod & Greg Wiltshire, 2009. "‘Binge’ drinking in the UK: a social network phenomenon," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 8(2), pages 135-152, December.
22. Paul Ormerod & Amy Heineike, 2009. "Global recessions as a cascade phenomenon with interacting agents," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 4(1), pages 15-26, June.
23. Bentley, R. Alexander & Madsen, Mark E. & Ormerod, Paul, 2009. "Physical space and long-tail markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(5), pages 691-696.
24. Paul Ormerod & Bridget Rosewell, 2009. "Innovation, diffusion and agglomeration," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 695-706.
25. Alex Bentley & Paul Ormerod, 2009. "Tradition And Fashion In Consumer Choice: Bagging The Scottish Munros," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(3), pages 371-381, July.
26. Jason Potts & Stuart Cunningham & John Hartley & Paul Ormerod, 2008. "Social network markets: a new definition of the creative industries," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 32(3), pages 167-185, September.
27. Ormerod, Paul, 2008. "Random Matrix Theory and Macro-Economic Time-Series: An Illustration Using the Evolution of Business Cycle Synchronisation, 1886-2006," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-10.
28. Ormerod, Paul, 2007. "Extracting deep information from limited observations on an evolved social network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 378(1), pages 48-52.
29. Ormerod, Paul, 2006. "Economic modelling with low-cognition agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 60-63.
30. Paul Ormerod, 2006. "Hayek, ‘The Intellectuals And Socialism’, And Weighted Scale‐Free Networks," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 41-47, March.
31. Paul Ormerod & Rich Colbaugh, 2006. "Cascades of Failure and Extinction in Evolving Complex Systems," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 9(4), pages 1-9.
32. Paul Ormerod, 2006. "Financial market complexity Neil F. Johnson, Paul Jeffries and Pak Ming Hui, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2003; 254 pp, ISBN 0-19-852665-2," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 384-384.
33. Gallegati, Mauro & Keen, Steve & Lux, Thomas & Ormerod, Paul, 2006. "Worrying trends in econophysics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 1-6.
34. Ormerod, Paul, 2004. "Information cascades and the distribution of economic recessions in capitalist economies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 341(C), pages 556-568.
35. Ormerod, Paul, 2004. "The impossibility of accurate macro-economic forecasting," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 11, pages 10-13.
36. Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gallegati, Mauro & Ormerod, Paul, 2004. "Scaling invariant distributions of firms’ exit in OECD countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 334(1), pages 267-273.
37. Pamela Meadows & Paul Ormerod & William Cook, 2004. "Social Networks: Their Role in Access to Financial Services in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 189(1), pages 99-109, July.
    • Meadows, Pamela & Ormerod, Paul & Cook, William, 2004. "Social Networks: Their Role in Access to Financial Services in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 189, pages 99-109, July.
38. Ormerod, Paul & Roach, Andrew P, 2004. "The Medieval inquisition: scale-free networks and the suppression of heresy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 339(3), pages 645-652.
39. Cook, William & Ormerod, Paul, 2003. "Power law distribution of the frequency of demises of US firms," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 207-212.
    • William Cook & Paul Ormerod, 2002. "Power Law Distribution of the Frequency of Demises of U.S Firms," Papers cond-mat/0212186, arXiv.org.
40. Paul Ormerod, 2003. "Turning the Tide: Bringing Economics Teaching into the Twenty First Century," International Review of Economic Education, Economics Network, University of Bristol, vol. 1(1), pages 71-79.
41. Ormerod, Paul, 2002. "The US business cycle: power law scaling for interacting units with complex internal structure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 774-785.
42. Ormerod, Paul & Mounfield, Craig, 2002. "The convergence of European business cycles 1978–2000," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 494-504.
43. Graham Bird, 2001. "IMF Programmes: Is there a conditionality Laffer Curve?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(2), pages 29-49, April.
44. Paul Ormerod, 2001. "Revisiting The Death of Economics," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(2), pages 163-176, April.
45. Ormerod, Paul & Mounfield, Craig, 2001. "Power law distribution of the duration and magnitude of recessions in capitalist economies: breakdown of scaling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 573-582.
46. Ormerod, Paul & Mounfield, Craig, 2000. "Random matrix theory and the failure of macro-economic forecasts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 280(3), pages 497-504.
47. Desai, Meghnad & Ormerod, Paul, 1998. "Richard Goodwin: A Short Appreciation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1431-1435, September.
48. Paul Ormerod, 1997. "Stopping crime spreading," New Economy, Institute for Public Policy Research, vol. 4(2), pages 83-88, June.
49. Murfin, Andy & Ormerod, Paul, 1984. "The Forward Rate for the U.S. Dollar and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, 1978-1983," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 52(3), pages 292-299, September.
50. Ormerod, P A & Worswick, G D N, 1982. "Unemployment in Interwar Britain [Searching for an Explanation of Unemployment in Interwar Britain]," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(2), pages 400-409, April.
51. Ormerod, Paul, 1980. "Manufactured Export Prices in the United Kingdom and the "Law of One Price."," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 48(3), pages 265-283, September.
52. Paul Ormerod, 1980. "The forward exchange rate for sterling and the efficiency of expectations," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(2), pages 205-224, June.
53. K.G.P. Matthews & P.A. Ormerod, 1978. "St. Louis Models of the Uk Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 84(1), pages 65-69, May.
    • Matthews, K.G.P. & Ormerod, P.A., 1978. "St. Louis Models of the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 84, pages 65-69, May.
54. S.G.B. Henry & P.A. Ormerod, 1978. "Incomes Policy and Wage Inflation: Empirical Evidence for the Uk 1961-1977," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 85(1), pages 31-39, August.
55. J.S.E. Laury & G.R. Lewis & P.A. Ormerod, 1978. "Properties of Macroeconomic Models of the Uk Economy: A Comparative Study," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 83(1), pages 52-72, February.
56. Ormerod, P A, 1978. "The Effects of Revisions to Central Statistical Office Data for the U.K. Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 40(2), pages 165-171, May.
57. M.J.C. Surrey & P.A. Ormerod, 1977. "Formal and Informal Aspects of Forecasting With an Econometric Model," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 81(1), pages 67-71, August.

Chapters

1. Paul Ormerod & Bridget Rosewell & Greg Wiltshire, 2011. "Network Models of Innovation Process and Policy Implications," Chapters, in: Cristiano Antonelli (ed.), Handbook on the Economic Complexity of Technological Change, chapter 19, Edward Elgar Publishing.
2. Paul Ormerod & Bridget Rosewell, 2004. "On the Methodology of Assessing Agent-Based Evolutionary Models in the Social Sciences," Chapters, in: J. Stanley Metcalfe & John Foster (ed.), Evolution and Economic Complexity, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
3. Paul Ormerod, 2002. "Post-orthodox econometrics," Chapters, in: Shelia C. Dow (ed.), Keynes, Uncertainty and the Global Economy, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.