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Is There an `EMS' Effect in European Labour Markets?

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  • Artis, Michael J
  • Ormerod, Paul

Abstract

It is claimed that membership of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) gives countries a credibility bonus which reduces the output and employment costs of disinflation. Within the EMS this arises because of the commitment of participants in the ERM to maintain their parities against the Deutschmark, with Germany acting as a low-inflation anchor. The paper finds evidence of such a credibility effect: during `the EMS period' (flexibly dated) German inflation enters into autoregressive inflation predictor schemes for each of the main EMS countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands). In addition, the process of wage determination in these countries appears to have been affected by institutional changes associated with adjustment to the ERM. Nevertheless, there is also a large residual (upward) adjustment of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Artis, Michael J & Ormerod, Paul, 1991. "Is There an `EMS' Effect in European Labour Markets?," CEPR Discussion Papers 598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:598
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Laurence Boone, 1997. "Symmetry and Asymmetry of Supply and Demand Shocks in the European Union," Working Papers 1997-03, CEPII research center.
    2. Nicholas Sarantis & Chris Stewart, 2000. "The ERM Effect, Conflict and Inflation in the European Union," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 25-43.
    3. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Schermer, Nicolien, 2009. "Europeanization or globalization? Transnational wage bargaining and the distribution of activity in European labor markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-192, August.
    4. Alex Lammertsma & Clemens J. M. Kool, 2000. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 312-315, March.
    5. Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 1997. "Degré de flexibilité des marchés du travail, ajustement à des chocs asymétriques et union monétaire européenne," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 128(2), pages 79-100.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Monetary System; Inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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