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Die Bedeutung der Automobilindustrie für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft im europäischen Kontext: Endbericht an das Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie

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  • Legler, Harald
  • Gehrke, Birgit
  • Krawczyk, Olaf
  • Schasse, Ulrich
  • Rammer, Christian
  • Leheyda, Nina
  • Sofka, Wolfgang

Abstract

Im Blickfeld dieser Studie stand die wirtschaftliche Bedeutung der Automobilindustrie in Deutschland im langfristigen internationalen Vergleich: Einerseits ihr Beitrag zu Wertschöpfung, Beschäftigung, Investitionen und Außenhandel, zum anderen ihre Bedeutung für den Forschungs- und Innovationsstandort Deutschland. Die Automobilindustrie wurde dabei nicht isoliert betrachtet, sondern in ihrer engen Verflechtung mit anderen Branchen. Dies betrifft sowohl die Arbeitsteilung zwischen Herstellern und Zulieferern als auch intersektorale Lieferbeziehungen (Input-Output-Analyse) und "technologische Verflechtungen" über wechselseitige Innovationsimpulse, Erfindungen und FuE. Deshalb schließt die Untersuchung die durch die Automobilproduktion ausgelösten vorgelagerten (indirekten) Wirkungen auf Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung sowie die Impulse für Innovationen in Deutschland mit ein. Darüber hinaus wurde der Rolle des inländischen Absatzmarktes und der Bedeutung des Premiumsegments für die deutsche Automobilindustrie nachgegangen. So weit es die Datenlage erlaubte, wurden diese Aspekte in möglichst langfristiger Sicht, beginnend ab 1980, vornehmlich jedoch für die Periode ab Mitte der 90er Jahre untersucht. Die Analyse endet unmittelbar vor der schweren Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise, die im Jahr 2009 weltweit den Automobilbau besonders kräftig erfasst hat. Insofern zeichnet sie ein sehr positives Bild der Wachstums- und Strukturwirkungen des Automobilbaus in seiner "Hochzeit". Die Auswirkungen der (sektoralen) Überkapazitätskrise und der allgemeinen weltwirtschaftlichen Rezession sind in dieser Studie ebenso nicht analysiert worden wie die Zukunftsaussichten.1 Die Studie liefert vor allem (Teil-)Antworten bzw. Materialien zur Diskussion von Fragen wie: Wo steht der deutsche Automobilbau sowohl im intersektoralen wie auch im internationalen Maßstab? Was kann bei den sich abzeichnenden Trends in der internationalen Arbeitsteilung, des (Produkt-)Strukturwandels und der Innovationsaktivitäten wieder erreicht werden? Kommt die deutsche Automobilwirtschaft besser aus der Krise als ihre Konkurrenten? Was geht ggf. verloren? Welche gesamtwirtschaftliche Konsequenzen könnte dies bedeuten?

Suggested Citation

  • Legler, Harald & Gehrke, Birgit & Krawczyk, Olaf & Schasse, Ulrich & Rammer, Christian & Leheyda, Nina & Sofka, Wolfgang, 2009. "Die Bedeutung der Automobilindustrie für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft im europäischen Kontext: Endbericht an das Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110502.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewexp:110502
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marian Beise & Klaus Rennings, 2004. "The impact of national environmental policy on the global success of next-generation automobiles," International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(3), pages 272-283.
    2. Dekimpe, M.G. & Parker, P.M. & Sarvary, M., 1997. ""Globalization": Modeling Technology Adoption Timing Across Countries," INSEAD 97/75, INSEAD, Centre for the Management of Environmental Resources. The European Institute of Business Administration..
    3. Gehrke, Birgit & Legler, Harald & Schasse, Ulrich & Cordes, Alexander & Leidmann, Mark, 2009. "Adäquate quantitative Erfassung wissensintensiver Dienstleistungen," Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 13-2009, Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI) - Commission of Experts for Research and Innovation, Berlin.
    4. Vernon, Raymond, 1979. "The Product Cycle Hypothesis in a New International Environment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 41(4), pages 255-267, November.
    5. Beise, Marian, 2004. "Lead markets: country-specific drivers of the global diffusion of innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6-7), pages 997-1018, September.
    6. Rammer, Christian, 2007. "Unternehmensdynamik in den forschungsund wissensintensiven Wirtschaftszweigen in Deutschland: Zur Entwicklung von Gründungen und Schließungen bis im internationalen Vergleich 1995-2006," Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 5-2008, Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI) - Commission of Experts for Research and Innovation, Berlin.
    7. Reinhard Hild, 2008. "Automobilmarkt und Kraftwagenproduktion: Crash nach dem Rekordniveau?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(23), pages 35-48, December.
    8. Jörg-Peter Weiß, 2000. "Die deutsche Automobilindustrie im internationalen Wettbewerb," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 67(12), pages 168-173.
    9. Marian Beise & Klaus Rennings, 2004. "National Environmental Policy and the Global Success of Next-Generation Automobiles," Discussion Paper Series 154, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    10. Sofka, Wolfgang & Zimmermann, Jörg, 2008. "Regional economic stress as moderator of liability of foreignness," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 155-172, June.
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    1. Grischa Beier & Julian Kiefer & Jutta Knopf, 2022. "Potentials of big data for corporate environmental management: A case study from the German automotive industry," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(1), pages 336-349, February.
    2. Berger, Marius & Boockmann, Bernhard & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Klempt, Charlotte & Koch, Andreas & Kohler, Wilhelm K. & Lerch, Christian & Neuhäusler, Peter & Rammer, Christian, 2017. "Strukturanalyse und Perspektiven des Wirtschaftsstandortes Baden-Württemberg im nationalen und internationalen Vergleich. Abschlussbericht," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 172787.

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