IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zib/zbnees/v5y2021i1p1-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Characterization, Forecasting And Assessment Of Agricultural Drought Impacts In The Sudano-Sahelian Climate Of Gourma Province In Burkina Faso

Author

Listed:
  • Isaac Chitedze

    (Department of Energy Systems, Mzuzu University, Malawi; isaacchitedze@gmail.com.)

  • Julius Okoth Omondi

    (Department of Environmental and Bio-systems Engineering, University of Nairobi, Kenya; juliusomondi14@gmail.com.)

  • Judith Kumatso

    (Department of Applied Sciences, Malawi University of Science and Technology, Malawi; jckumatso@must.ac.mw.)

Abstract

Natural hazards such as agricultural droughts impact negatively on crop yields and economic activities. Characterization of agricultural droughts provides precise and accurate information for decision making processes during agricultural drought events. Planning and responding to the hazards by government, and non-governmental organizations in the Sudano-Sahelian belt has been limited in the past due to knowledge gap on the nature and impact of the hazard. This study seeks to characterize historical agricultural droughts, assess their impact on crop yields and people’s susceptibility to undernourishment and through forecasting, unravel what the future holds. Annual effective reconnaissance drought index values are computed using mean monthly potential evapotranspiration and effective precipitation data. To assess the impact of agricultural drought, the index’s values are compared to crop yields and prevalence to undernourishment data. Results show that agricultural drought events of 1983 and 2008 are mild and ephemeral while the 1999 – 2006 event is severe and protracted. While there is 26% chance of materialization of an agricultural drought in Gourma, the chance of being ephemeral and of moderate category is the highest (8%). It has been determined that an ephemeral and moderate agricultural drought would trigger below average yields for maize, sorghum and millet. Mild, moderate and severe events increase prevalence to undernourishment by 2.9 %, 4.3 % and 5.8 % respectively. From 2020 to 2030, a continued materialization of agricultural droughts is expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Isaac Chitedze & Julius Okoth Omondi & Judith Kumatso, 2020. "Characterization, Forecasting And Assessment Of Agricultural Drought Impacts In The Sudano-Sahelian Climate Of Gourma Province In Burkina Faso," Environment & Ecosystem Science (EES), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:zib:zbnees:v:5:y:2021:i:1:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.26480/ees.01.2021.01.09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://environecosystem.com/download/14713/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26480/ees.01.2021.01.09?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Xinguo & Li, Yi & Yao, Ning & Liu, De Li & Javed, Tehseen & Liu, Chuncheng & Liu, Fenggui, 2020. "Impacts of multi-timescale SPEI and SMDI variations on winter wheat yields," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    2. Bakhtiar Feizizadeh & Stefan Kienberger, 2017. "Spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for multicriteria-based vulnerability assessment," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(11), pages 2013-2035, November.
    3. Joern Birkmann & Susan Cutter & Dale Rothman & Torsten Welle & Matthias Garschagen & Bas Ruijven & Brian O’Neill & Benjamin Preston & Stefan Kienberger & Omar Cardona & Tiodora Siagian & Deny Hidayati, 2015. "Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 53-68, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaobing Yu & Hong Chen & Chenliang Li, 2019. "Evaluate Typhoon Disasters in 21st Century Maritime Silk Road by Super-Efficiency DEA," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-10, May.
    2. Joern Birkmann & Reinhard Mechler, 2015. "Advancing climate adaptation and risk management. New insights, concepts and approaches: what have we learned from the SREX and the AR5 processes?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 1-6, November.
    3. Samereh Pourmoradian & Ali Vandshoari & Davoud Omarzadeh & Ayyoob Sharifi & Naser Sanobuar & Seyyed Samad Hosseini, 2021. "An Integrated Approach to Assess Potential and Sustainability of Handmade Carpet Production in Different Areas of the East Azerbaijan Province of Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Wei Zhang & Qianxing Zhao & Minjie Pei, 2021. "How much uncertainty does the choice of data transforming method brings to heat risk mapping? Evidence from China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 349-373, March.
    5. Hans Visser & Arthur Petersen & Willem Ligtvoet, 2014. "On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 461-477, August.
    6. Jörn Birkmann & Holger Sauter & Matthias Garschagen & Mark Fleischhauer & Wiriya Puntub & Charlotte Klose & Albrecht Burkhardt & Franziska Göttsche & Kevin Laranjeira & Julia Müller & Björn Büter, 2021. "New methods for local vulnerability scenarios to heat stress to inform urban planning—case study City of Ludwigsburg/Germany," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-20, March.
    7. de Castro-Pardo, Mónica & Pérez-Rodríguez, Fernando & Martín-Martín, José María & Azevedo, João C., 2019. "Modelling stakeholders’ preferences to pinpoint conflicts in the planning of transboundary protected areas," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Li, Na & Li, Yi & Yang, Qiliang & Biswas, Asim & Dong, Hezhong, 2024. "Simulating climate change impacts on cotton using AquaCrop model in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    9. Zhang, Ziya & Li, Yi & Chen, Xinguo & Wang, Yanzi & Niu, Ben & Liu, De Li & He, Jianqiang & Pulatov, Bakhtiyor & Hassan, Ishtiaq & Meng, Qingtao, 2023. "Impact of climate change and planting date shifts on growth and yields of double cropping rice in southeastern China in future," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    10. Yasser Ebrahimian Ghajari & Ali Asghar Alesheikh & Mahdi Modiri & Reza Hosnavi & Morteza Abbasi, 2017. "Spatial Modelling of Urban Physical Vulnerability to Explosion Hazards Using GIS and Fuzzy MCDA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-29, July.
    11. Curtis Champion & James R. Lawson & Joanna Pardoe & Derrick O. Cruz & Ashley M. Fowler & Fabrice Jaine & Hayden T. Schilling & Melinda A. Coleman, 2023. "Multi-criteria analysis for rapid vulnerability assessment of marine species to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-20, August.
    12. Kirsten Halsnæs & Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen & Per Skougaard Kaspersen, 2018. "Climate change risks for severe storms in developing countries in the context of poverty and inequality in Cambodia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(1), pages 261-278, October.
    13. Parviz Mohamadzadeh & Samereh Pourmoradian & Bakhtiar Feizizadeh & Ayyoob Sharifi & Mathias Vogdrup-Schmidt, 2020. "A GIS-Based Approach for Spatially-Explicit Sustainable Development Assessments in East Azerbaijan Province, Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    14. Danish Farooq & Sarbast Moslem & Rana Faisal Tufail & Omid Ghorbanzadeh & Szabolcs Duleba & Ahsen Maqsoom & Thomas Blaschke, 2020. "Analyzing the Importance of Driver Behavior Criteria Related to Road Safety for Different Driving Cultures," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-14, March.
    15. Liu, Cong & Li, Kaiwei & Zhang, Jiquan & Guga, Suri & Wang, Rui & Liu, Xingpeng & Tong, Zhijun, 2023. "Dynamic risk assessment of waterlogging disaster to spring peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in Henan Province, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    16. Ariana Modesto & Monika Kamenečki & Dora Tomić Reljić, 2021. "Application of Suitability Modeling in Establishing a New Bicycle–Pedestrian Path: The Case of the Abandoned Kanfanar–Rovinj Railway in Istria," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-22, June.
    17. James D. Ford & Tristan Pearce & Graham McDowell & Lea Berrang-Ford & Jesse S. Sayles & Ella Belfer, 2018. "Vulnerability and its discontents: the past, present, and future of climate change vulnerability research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 189-203, November.
    18. Yao, Ning & Li, Yi & Liu, Qingzhu & Zhang, Siyuan & Chen, Xinguo & Ji, Yadong & Liu, Fenggui & Pulatov, Alim & Feng, Puyu, 2022. "Response of wheat and maize growth-yields to meteorological and agricultural droughts based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indexes and soil moisture deficit indexes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    19. Dechao Chen & Xinliang Xu & Zongyao Sun & Luo Liu & Zhi Qiao & Tai Huang, 2019. "Assessment of Urban Heat Risk in Mountain Environments: A Case Study of Chongqing Metropolitan Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Zhang, Siyao & Li, Jianzhu & Zhang, Ting & Feng, Ping & Liu, Weilin, 2024. "Response of vegetation to SPI and driving factors in Chinese mainland," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zib:zbnees:v:5:y:2021:i:1:p:1-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zibeline International Publishing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://environecosystem.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.