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New methods for local vulnerability scenarios to heat stress to inform urban planning—case study City of Ludwigsburg/Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Jörn Birkmann

    (University of Stuttgart)

  • Holger Sauter

    (University of Stuttgart)

  • Matthias Garschagen

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich (LMU))

  • Mark Fleischhauer

    (TU Dortmund University)

  • Wiriya Puntub

    (TU Dortmund University)

  • Charlotte Klose

    (Department of Energy, Environment and Mobility & Department of Statistics and social data)

  • Albrecht Burkhardt

    (Department of Energy, Environment and Mobility & Department of Statistics and social data)

  • Franziska Göttsche

    (University of Stuttgart)

  • Kevin Laranjeira

    (University of Stuttgart)

  • Julia Müller

    (Department of Energy, Environment and Mobility & Department of Statistics and social data)

  • Björn Büter

    (GEO-Net)

Abstract

Adaptation strategies to climate change need information about present and future climatic conditions. However, next to scenarios about the future climate, scenarios about future vulnerability are essential, since also changing societal conditions fundamentally determine adaptation needs. At the international and national level, first initiatives for developing vulnerability scenarios and so-called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been undertaken. Most of these scenarios, however, do not provide sufficient information for local scenarios and local climate risk management. There is an urgent need to develop scenarios for vulnerability at the local scale in order to complement climate change scenarios. Heat stress is seen as a key challenge in cities in the context of climate change and further urban growth. Based on the research project ZURES (ZURES 2020 website), the paper presents a new method for human vulnerability scenarios to heat stress at the very local scale for growing medium-sized cities. In contrast to global models that outline future scenarios mostly with a country-level resolution, we show a new method on how to develop spatially specific scenario information for different districts within cities, starting from the planned urban development and expansion. The method provides a new opportunity to explore how different urban development strategies and housing policies influence future human exposure and vulnerability. Opportunities and constraints of the approach are revealed. Finally, we discuss how these scenarios can inform future urban development and risk management strategies and how these could complement more global or national approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Jörn Birkmann & Holger Sauter & Matthias Garschagen & Mark Fleischhauer & Wiriya Puntub & Charlotte Klose & Albrecht Burkhardt & Franziska Göttsche & Kevin Laranjeira & Julia Müller & Björn Büter, 2021. "New methods for local vulnerability scenarios to heat stress to inform urban planning—case study City of Ludwigsburg/Germany," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-20, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:165:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03005-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03005-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Birkmann & O. Cardona & M. Carreño & A. Barbat & M. Pelling & S. Schneiderbauer & S. Kienberger & M. Keiler & D. Alexander & P. Zeil & T. Welle, 2013. "Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 193-211, June.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    3. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    4. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    5. Joern Birkmann & Susan Cutter & Dale Rothman & Torsten Welle & Matthias Garschagen & Bas Ruijven & Brian O’Neill & Benjamin Preston & Stefan Kienberger & Omar Cardona & Tiodora Siagian & Deny Hidayati, 2015. "Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 53-68, November.
    6. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Becker & Felix J. Othmer & Stefan Greiving, 2022. "Climate Impact Assessment for Sustainable Structural Change in the Rhenish Lignite Mining Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, June.

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