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Regional Climatic Response To Global Warming And Agriculture In Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Mazhar Iqbal

    (Water Management Training and Research Institute, Agriculture Department (Water Management Wing), Government of the Punjab, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan.)

  • Malik Muhammad Akram

    (Directorate General, Agriculture Department (Water Management Wing), Government of the Punjab, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan.)

  • Maqsood Ahmad

    (Water Management Training and Research Institute, Agriculture Department (Water Management Wing), Government of the Punjab, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan.)

  • Saddam Hussain

    (Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, 38000, Pakistan.)

  • Ghulam Usman

    (Water Management Training and Research Institute, Agriculture Department (Water Management Wing), Government of the Punjab, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan)

Abstract

Human-induced anthropogenic variations cause a significant change in the local climate, which in turn lead to variations in different climatic regions. The effects of global warming have wide spatial variability, feedback of climate change, like, surface temperature towards precipitation, surface, and subsurface runoff are critical. As the climate, variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of weather surface temperature is changing, and if so, whether this has a positive or negative impact on precipitation, surface and ground runoff, and theirs distinguish response to different climate classes, are subjects of ongoing debate. The current research is mainly concerned with distinguishing the response of surface temperature on the precipitation, storm surface run off, and subsurface runoff on different climate classes over the mainland of Pakistan, for a time duration of 71 years, from 1948–2018. Here, we used monthly based two sets of GLDAS (Global Data Assimilation System) datasets i.e. GLDAS-2.0 (1948-2010) and GLDAS-2.1 (2011-2018) having the spatial resolution of 0.25°×0.25° for surface temperature, precipitation, and runoff. While, for regional based climatic classification, Köppen Grignard climate classification map was used. The spatial-temporal trend of all the involving parameters has been estimated using Mann-Kendall’s trend. Spatial-temporal variation in the precipitation, surface temperature, and runoff fluctuations have been detected in different climatic regions. We showed that annually based variability of surface temperature has positive feedback over the surface runoff over the entire region as well as different climate regions of Pakistan. Despite the declining precipitation trend, the temperature seems to be a major cause of the melting of glaciers leading to an increase in the runoff. Based on our findings of established trends and corresponding mechanistic ‘feedback’ we hypothesize that increasing temperature might risk severe water shortage and cause disastrous floods in the future. Furthermore, different climatic zoning’s surface temperature variability contributed to observed variation in the precipitation, surface, and subsurface runoff variability, which in turn contributed to the persistent droughts. Changes in surface temperature and their impact on precipitation and runoff deliver valued evidence for understanding the region’s sensitivity over the entire region in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Mazhar Iqbal & Malik Muhammad Akram & Maqsood Ahmad & Saddam Hussain & Ghulam Usman, 2021. "Regional Climatic Response To Global Warming And Agriculture In Pakistan," Big Data In Water Resources Engineering (BDWRE), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 18-23, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:zib:zbdwre:v:2:y:2021:i:1:p:18-23
    DOI: 10.26480/bdwre.01.2021.18.23
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saddam Hussain & Saba Malik & Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud Cheema & Muhammad Umair Ashraf & Muhammad Mazhar Iqbal & Sikandar Ali & Lubna Anjum & Muhammad Aslam & Hassan Afzal, 2020. "An Overview On Emerging Water Scarcity Challange In Pakistan, Its Consumption, Causes, Impacts And Remedial Measures," Big Data In Water Resources Engineering (BDWRE), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 22-31, March.
    2. Adil Dilawar & Baozhang Chen & Arfan Arshad & Lifeng Guo & Muhammad Irfan Ehsan & Yawar Hussain & Alphonse Kayiranga & Simon Measho & Huifang Zhang & Fei Wang & Xiaohong Sun & Mengyu Ge, 2021. "Towards Understanding Variability in Droughts in Response to Extreme Climate Conditions over the Different Agro-Ecological Zones of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-28, June.
    3. Muhammad Mazhar Iqbal & Muhammad Shoaib & Hafiz Umar Farid & Jung Lyul Lee, 2018. "Assessment of Water Quality Profile Using Numerical Modeling Approach in Major Climate Classes of Asia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-26, October.
    4. Jeremy S. Pal & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, 2016. "Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 197-200, February.
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