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Gewohnte Wachstumskräfte gewinnen die Oberhand: IW-Konjunkturprognose Frühjahr 2010

Author

Listed:
  • Brügelmann, Ralph
  • Fuest, Winfried
  • Grömling, Michael
  • Hüther, Michael
  • Jäger, Manfred
  • Kroker, Rolf
  • Pimpertz, Jochen
  • Römer, Christof
  • Schäfer, Holger
  • Schröder, Christoph

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft hat den im zweiten Quartal 2009 eingeschlagenen Erholungskurs bisher ungebremst fortgesetzt, wenngleich zuletzt mit schwächerem Tempo. Das preisbereinigte Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird im Jahr 2010 um 1 ¾ Prozent zulegen. Im Jahr 2011 gewinnt die deutsche Konjunktur weiter an Tempo, was zu einem Wirtschaftswachstum in Höhe von gut 2 Prozent führt. Im vierten Quartal 2011 wird sogar das Produktionsniveau des Jahresdurchschnitts 2007 leicht übertroffen. Vor allem die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft und die steigenden Investitionen in den Schwellenländern bringen den deutschen Exportmotor wieder in Schwung. Damit setzt auch hierzulande wieder die Investitionstätigkeit der Unternehmen ein und die sich im Zeitablauf verbessernde Arbeitsmarktlage unterstützt im kommenden Jahr den privaten Konsum. Die Anzahl der Arbeitslosen wird im Jahresdurchschnitt 2011 gerade einmal bei gut 3,4 Millionen Personen liegen. Das entspricht einer Arbeitslosenquote von 7 ¾ Prozent. Insgesamt gingen somit in der Krise rund 150.000 Arbeitsplätze verloren – weniger als ein Drittel des Beschäftigungsabbaus im Zeitraum 2001 bis 2005. Das Staatsdefizit wird in Deutschland nach 5 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts in diesem Jahr bei 4 Prozent im Jahr 2011 liegen.

Suggested Citation

  • Brügelmann, Ralph & Fuest, Winfried & Grömling, Michael & Hüther, Michael & Jäger, Manfred & Kroker, Rolf & Pimpertz, Jochen & Römer, Christof & Schäfer, Holger & Schröder, Christoph, 2010. "Gewohnte Wachstumskräfte gewinnen die Oberhand: IW-Konjunkturprognose Frühjahr 2010," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 37(2), pages 19-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwktre:157001
    DOI: 10.2373/1864-810X.10-02-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Erholung setzt sich fort – Risiken bleiben groß: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2010," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 16(1. Sonder), pages 1-95.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2010: Erholung setzt sich fort – Risiken bleiben groß," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(08), pages 03-78, April.
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