IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkie/45571.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Deutschland: Konjunkturelle Erholung setzt sich in verlangsamtem Tempo fort - Gefahr eines Rückschlags durch die Schuldenkrise

Author

Listed:
  • Boss, Alfred
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

In den vergangenen Monaten haben sich die Frühindikatoren deutlich verbessert. Die konjunkturelle Dynamik dürfte in der ersten Jahreshälfte deutlich höher gewesen sein, als von uns im vergangenen März geschätzt wurde. Für das Jahr 2010 insgesamt prognostizieren wir einen Anstieg des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 2,1 Prozent (Prognose im März: 1,2 Prozent). Die Zunahme im Jahr 2011 setzen wir mit 1,2 Prozent deutlich niedriger an als in unserer Prognose vom März (1,8 Prozent), vor allem weil die Finanzpolitik im kommenden Jahr dämpfend wirkt und sich die Weltkonjunktur stärker abschwächt als bisher erwartet. Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen wird weiter spürbar sinken.

Suggested Citation

  • Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Deutschland: Konjunkturelle Erholung setzt sich in verlangsamtem Tempo fort - Gefahr eines Rückschlags durch die Schuldenkrise," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45571, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:45571
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/45571/1/63213027X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    2. Boss, Alfred & Rosenschon, Astrid, 2010. "Subventionen in Deutschland: Der Kieler Subventionsbericht," Kiel Discussion Papers 479/480, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2010. "The future of public debt: prospects and implications," BIS Working Papers 300, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Moderate Erholung in Deutschland - Arbeitsmarkt in erstaunlich guter Verfassung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45584, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "The ugly and the bad: banking and housing crises strangle output permanently, ordinary recessions do not," Kiel Working Papers 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boss, Alfred & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Deutschland: Nach dem Zwischenspurt langsamere Gangart der Konjunktur," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45580, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Boss, Alfred & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2010. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2010," Kiel Discussion Papers 483/484, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    2. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    3. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2017. "Austerity & Competitiveness in the Eurozone: a misleading linkage," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0223, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    5. Simone Salotti & Carmine Trecroci, 2012. "Even worse than you thought: The effects of government debt on investment and productivity," EcoMod2012 4200, EcoMod.
    6. Nazila Alinaghi & W. Robert Reed, 2021. "Taxes and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Meta-analysis," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(1), pages 3-40, January.
    7. Yifei Cai, 2017. "Nonlinear Analysis of Economic Growth, Public Debt and Policy Tools," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 99-108, January.
    8. Joshua Mason and Arjun Jayadev, "undated". "Fisher Dynamics in Household Debt: The Case of the U.S. 1929-2011," Working Papers 13, University of Massachusetts Boston, Economics Department.
    9. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    10. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.
    11. Solomon Sorin & Golo Natasa, 2013. "Minsky Financial Instability, Interscale Feedback, Percolation and Marshall–Walras Disequilibrium," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 167-260, October.
    12. Ben Ltaief, Leila, 2014. "Dette publique et croissance économique : investigation empirique pour la zone euro, l’Union européenne et les pays avancés," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 90(2), pages 79-103, Juin.
    13. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2016. "The Short- and Long-Run Damages of Fiscal Austerity: Keynes beyond Schumpeter," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Martin Guzman (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics, chapter 8, pages 79-100, Palgrave Macmillan.
    14. Alberto Botta, 2020. "The short- and long-run inconsistency of the expansionary austerity theory: a post-Keynesian/evolutionist critique," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 143-177, January.
    15. Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab, 2012. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: An Analysis with an Estimated DSGE Model for the Hungarian Economy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 945, OECD Publishing.
    16. Curatola, Giuliano & Donadelli, Michael & Gioffré, Alessandro & Grüning, Patrick, 2015. "Austerity, fiscal uncertainty, and economic growth: Insights from fiscally weak EU countries," SAFE Working Paper Series 56, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2015.
    17. Branimir Jovanovic, 2017. "Growth forecast errors and government investment and consumption multipliers," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 83-107, January.
    18. Lau, Evan & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Liew, Kim-Hing, 2022. "Debt and economic growth in Asian developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 599-612.
    19. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Schwellenländer tragen die Expansion der Weltwirtschaft," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45590, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5bli88krr28f68nvhfe1qtsl9l is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Stiglitz, J.E., 2016. "An agenda for sustainable and inclusive growth for emerging markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 693-710.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:45571. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.