IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/serxxx/v62y2017i05ns021759081550099x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact Of Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis On China And India

Author

Listed:
  • PAMI DUA

    (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007, India)

  • DIVYA TUTEJA

    (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007, India)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of the Eurozone debt crisis on China and India. Using Markov-switching analysis, we discern regimes in economic growth as well as financial markets and study the impact of the global financial crisis and Eurozone crisis on the same. We identify vulnerability and robustness factors governing the degree of exposure and resilience to the crisis for both these economies. In view of strong trade and financial linkages, the Eurozone crisis may have marred prospects of recovery in the aftermath of the recent Great Recession in both China and India. China, however, is found to be more resilient to the crisis possibly due to stronger macroeconomic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2017. "Impact Of Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis On China And India," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(05), pages 1137-1164, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:05:n:s021759081550099x
    DOI: 10.1142/S021759081550099X
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S021759081550099X
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S021759081550099X?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashoka Mody & Damiano Sandri, 2012. "The eurozone crisis: how banks and sovereigns came to be joined at the hip [‘A pyrrhic victory? Bank bailouts and sovereign credit risk’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 199-230.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Kalbaska, A. & Gątkowski, M., 2012. "Eurozone sovereign contagion: Evidence from the CDS market (2005–2010)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 657-673.
    4. Calice, Giovanni & Chen, Jing & Williams, Julian, 2013. "Liquidity spillovers in sovereign bond and CDS markets: An analysis of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 122-143.
    5. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    6. Abel L. Costa Fernandes & Paulo R. Mota, 2011. "The Roots of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis: PIGS vs Non-PIGS," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(5), pages 631-649, December.
    7. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Vermeulen, Robert, 2012. "Transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the EMU: Stock prices, CDS spreads and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 517-533.
    8. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Vermeulen, Robert, 2012. "Transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the EMU: Stock prices, CDS spreads and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 517-533.
    9. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:288-299 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Fong, Tom Pak Wing & Wong, Alfred Y-T., 2012. "Gauging potential sovereign risk contagion in Europe," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 496-499.
    11. Abel L. Costa Fernandes & Paulo R. Mota, 2011. "The Roots of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis: PIGS vs Non-PIGS," FEP Working Papers 413, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    12. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2013. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages among international currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 319-332.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    14. Anirvan Banerji & Pami Dua, 2010. "Synchronisation of Recessions in Major Developed and Emerging Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 197-223, May.
    15. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    16. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    17. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
    18. Ahmad, Wasim & Sehgal, Sanjay & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2013. "Eurozone crisis and BRIICKS stock markets: Contagion or market interdependence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 209-225.
    19. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    20. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Advances in Econometrics, in: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications, pages 1-86, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    21. Eichengreen, Barry, 2012. "Implications of the Euro's crisis for international monetary reform," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 541-548.
    22. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2013. "Rating agencies’ signals during the European sovereign debt crisis: Market impact and spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 144-162.
    23. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    24. Manfred Gärtner & Björn Griesbach & Florian Jung, 2011. "PIGS or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating Agencies," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 288-299, August.
    25. Paolo Guerrieri & Piero Esposito, 2013. "Intra-European imbalances, adjustment, and growth in the eurozone," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(3), pages 532-550, AUTUMN.
    26. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 15(2), pages 177-197, August.
    27. Metiu, Norbert, 2012. "Sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 35-38.
    28. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    29. Stephen Goldfeld & Richard Quandt, 1973. "The Estimation of Structural Shifts by Switching Regressions," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 4, pages 475-485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2024. "Impact Of Crises On Indian Financial Markets," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 27(3), pages 557-572, July.
    2. Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides & Livia Chatzieleftheriou & Arsenios‐Georgios N. Prelorentzos, 2022. "Crisis and the Chinese miracle: A network—GVAR model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 900-921, July.
    3. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Mathias mandla Manguzvane, 2020. "Assessing the extent of contagion of sovereign credit risk among BRICS countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1017-1032.
    4. Ahmed Samour, Aliya Zhakanova Isiksal, Turgut Türsoy, 2023. "Effects of the domestic and ECB interest rates on Türkiye's stock market: Empirical evidence from a newly developed combined co-integration and causality analysis," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 20(2), pages 223-238, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dua, Pami & Tuteja, Divya, 2016. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages across international stock and currency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 249-261.
    2. Bhatia, Shipra & Tuteja, Divya, 2024. "Contagion and linkages across international currencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2016. "Contagion in International Stock and Currency Markets During Recent Crisis Episodes," Working papers 258, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    4. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2015. "Global Recession and Eurozone Debt Crisis: Impact on Exports of China and India," Working Papers id:7386, eSocialSciences.
    5. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2023. "Synchronization in Cycles of China and India During Recent Crises: A Markov Switching Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(2), pages 317-337, June.
    6. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2021. "Regime Shifts in the Behaviour of International Currency and Equity Markets: A Markov-Switching Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 309-336, December.
    7. Wasim Ahmad & N. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2015. "Regime dependent dynamics and European stock markets: Is asset allocation really possible?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 77-107, February.
    8. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Mensi, Walid, 2017. "Interdependence and contagion among industry-level US credit markets: An application of wavelet and VMD based copula approaches," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 310-324.
    9. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    10. Ludwig, Alexander, 2014. "A unified approach to investigate pure and wake-up-call contagion: Evidence from the Eurozone's first financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 125-146.
    11. Ludwig, Alexander, 2013. "Sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone: A time-varying coefficient approach," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 02/13, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    12. Tola, Albi & Wälti, Sébastien, 2015. "Deciphering financial contagion in the euro area during the crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 108-123.
    13. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2017. "Identifying and measuring the contagion channels at work in the European financial crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 117-134.
    14. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    15. Lundblad, Christian T & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak, 2009. "Asset fire sales and purchases and the international transmission of financial shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Ginanjar Dewandaru & Rumi Masih & Mansur Masih, 2018. "Unraveling the Financial Contagion in European Stock Markets During Financial Crises: Multi-Timescale Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 859-880, March.
    17. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M. & Wisniewski, Tomasz P., 2015. "The gold price in times of crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 329-339.
    18. Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2023. "Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov-switching VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    19. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "What can wavelets unveil about the vulnerabilities of monetary integration? A tale of Eurozone stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 981-996.
    20. Matteo Barigozzi & Daniele Massacci, 2022. "Modelling Large Dimensional Datasets with Markov Switching Factor Models," Papers 2210.09828, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:05:n:s021759081550099x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ser/ser.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.