IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/liu/liucej/v20y2023i2p223-238.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of the domestic and ECB interest rates on Türkiye's stock market: Empirical evidence from a newly developed combined co-integration and causality analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed Samour, Aliya Zhakanova Isiksal, Turgut Türsoy

Abstract

The research examines the influence of the domestic interest rate and spillover effect of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates on Türkiye’s stock market from January 1999 to January 2019. The research applied the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration method to analyze the interaction among the tested variables. The Fully Modified-Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS), and Canonical Co-integrating Regression (CCR) tests are employed to support the findings of the ARDL model. A newly developed combined co-integration approach as proposed by Bayer-Hanck (BH) is utilized to promote the ARDL co-integration method. Furthermore, the Granger Causality approach is utilized to explore the causal linkage among tested variables. The findings indicated that Türkiye's stock market was negatively affected by the domestic interest rate volatility. Moreover, the study found that Türkiye's stock market was negatively affected by the ECB interest rate policy. The research suggested that the economic ties and integration among Turkey and the European Union (EU) countries led to increasing the sensitivity and volatility of Türkiye's stock market to ECB interest rate policy. It is suggested that the monetary authorities of Türkiye should pay more attention to stock market stability through monetary policy channels. Furthermore, they should pay more attention to the effects of external shocks such as ECB policy to maintain market stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Samour, Aliya Zhakanova Isiksal, Turgut Türsoy, 2023. "Effects of the domestic and ECB interest rates on Türkiye's stock market: Empirical evidence from a newly developed combined co-integration and causality analysis," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 20(2), pages 223-238, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:liu:liucej:v:20:y:2023:i:2:p:223-238
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ejce.liuc.it/articles/ejce023.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duran, Murat & Özcan, Gülserim & Özlü, Pınar & Ünalmış, Deren, 2012. "Measuring the impact of monetary policy on asset prices in Turkey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 29-31.
    2. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina, 2018. "International spillovers in global asset markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 3-17.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    5. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    6. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
    7. Pirovano, Mara, 2012. "Monetary policy and stock prices in small open economies: Empirical evidence for the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 372-390.
    8. Jansen, Dennis W. & Zervou, Anastasia, 2017. "The time varying effect of monetary policy on stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 54-58.
    9. Zhao, Wen-Xuan & Samour, Ahmed & Yi, Kefu & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2023. "Do technological innovation, natural resources and stock market development promote environmental sustainability? Novel evidence based on the load capacity factor," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    11. Hajek, Jan & Horvath, Roman, 2018. "International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 91-105.
    12. Li, Sheng & Samour, Ahmed & Irfan, Muhammad & Ali, Madad, 2023. "Role of renewable energy and fiscal policy on trade adjusted carbon emissions: Evaluating the role of environmental policy stringency," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 156-165.
    13. Ahmed Samour & Aliya Zhakanova Isiksal & Nil Gunsel Resatoglu, 2020. "The impact of external sovereign debt and the transmission effect of the US interest rate on Turkey’s equity market," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 319-333, April.
    14. Husam RJOUB & Irfan CIVCIR & Nil Gunsel RESATOGLU, 2017. "Micro and Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Prices: The Case of Turkish Banking Sector," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 150-166, March.
    15. Basistha, Arabinda & Kurov, Alexander, 2008. "Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2606-2616, December.
    16. Guray Kucukkocaoglu & Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis, 2013. "How do Banks� Stock Returns Respond to Monetary Policy Committee Announcements in Turkey? Evidence from Traditional versus New Monetary Policy Episodes," Working Papers 1330, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    17. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2006. "The European Central Bank, the Euro, and Global Financial Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 67-88, Fall.
    18. Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
    19. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2017. "Impact Of Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis On China And India," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(05), pages 1137-1164, December.
    20. Küçükkocaoğlu, Güray & Ünalmış, Deren & Ünalmış, İbrahim, 2013. "How do banks' stock returns respond to monetary policy committee announcements in Turkey? Evidence from traditional versus new monetary policy episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 536-545.
    21. Ioannidis, Christos & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2008. "The impact of monetary policy on stock prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53.
    22. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mamon Adam Maarof & Dildar Haydar Ahmed & Ahmed Samour, 2023. "Fiscal Policy, Oil Price, Foreign Direct Investment, and Renewable Energy—A Path to Sustainable Development in South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Xia, Wanjun & Murshed, Muntasir & Khan, Zeeshan & Chen, Zhenling & Ferraz, Diogo, 2022. "Exploring the nexus between fiscal decentralization and energy poverty for China: Does country risk matter for energy poverty reduction?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    3. Ahmed Samour & Omar Ikbal Tawfik & Magdalena Radulescu & Cristina Florentina Baldan, 2023. "Do Oil Price, Renewable Energy, and Financial Development Matter for Environmental Quality in Oman? Novel Insights from Augmented ARDL Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-14, June.
    4. Sugra Humbatova & Afag Huseyn & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2023. "Impact of Oil Factor on Investment: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 129-148, March.
    5. Chor Foon Tang & Nai-Peng Tey, 2017. "Low fertility in Malaysia: Can it be explained?," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 101-118, June.
    6. Oryani, Bahareh & Kamyab, Hesam & Mоridiаn, Аli & Azizi, Zahra & Rezania, Shahabaldin & Chelliapan, Shreeshivadasan, 2022. "Does structural change boost the energy demand in a fossil fuel-driven economy? New evidence from Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PC).
    7. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2019. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices and the exchange rate in the long-run," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Mohammed Abumunshar & Mehmet Aga & Ahmed Samour, 2020. "Oil Price, Energy Consumption, and CO 2 Emissions in Turkey. New Evidence from a Bootstrap ARDL Test," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
    9. Oguzhan Ece & Bulent Diclehan Cadirci, 2022. "The Effect of Loan Portfolio Concentration Level on Financial Stability and Performance: A Comparatıve Analysis in Dual Banking System," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 523-556, July.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    11. Guan, Jialin & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Bibi, Ayesha & Zhang, Weike, 2020. "Natural resources rents nexus with financial development in the presence of globalization: Is the “resource curse” exist or myth?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    14. Muntasir Murshed & Mohamed Elheddad & Rizwan Ahmed & Mohga Bassim & Ei Thuzar Than, 2022. "Foreign Direct Investments, Renewable Electricity Output, and Ecological Footprints: Do Financial Globalization Facilitate Renewable Energy Transition and Environmental Welfare in Bangladesh?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(1), pages 33-78, March.
    15. Wang, Yi-Hsien & Lee, Jun-De, 2012. "Estimating the import demand function for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2591-2596.
    16. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra & Asit Mohanty, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-12, December.
    17. Maxwell Chukwudi Udeagha & Nicholas Ngepah, 2022. "Dynamic ARDL Simulations Effects of Fiscal Decentralization, Green Technological Innovation, Trade Openness, and Institutional Quality on Environmental Sustainability: Evidence from South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-35, August.
    18. Nasiru Inuwa & Sagir Adamu & Mohammed Bello Sani & Haruna Usman Modibbo, 2022. "Natural resource and economic growth nexus in Nigeria: a disaggregated approach," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 17-37, April.
    19. Shahid, Rabia & Shahid, Humera & Shijie, Li & Jian, Gao, 2024. "Developing nexus between economic opening-up, environmental regulations, rent of natural resources, green innovation, and environmental upgrading of China - empirical analysis using ARDL bound-testing," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    20. Muhammad Umar & Xiangfeng Ji & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Muhammad Shahbaz & Xuemei Zhou, 2020. "Environmental cost of natural resources utilization and economic growth: Can China shift some burden through globalization for sustainable development?," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 1678-1688, November.
    21. Irina Georgescu & Jani Kinnunen & Ionuț Nica, 2024. "Assessing Forest Conservation for Finland: An ARDL-Based Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECB; interest rate; ARDL; Bayer-Hanck; economic crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:liu:liucej:v:20:y:2023:i:2:p:223-238. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laura Ballestra (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/liuccit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.