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US Long-Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies

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  • Eduardo Olaberría

    (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Department of Economics, 2 rue André Pascal, 75016 Paris, France)

Abstract

This paper studies the association between United States (US) long-term interest rates and cycles of capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs). It finds that cycles in capital flows to EMEs are linked to global conditions, including interest rates in the US. In particular, higher US long-term interest rates are associated with lower levels of gross capital flows to EMEs, and to a higher probability of observing sharp reversals in those flows. Episodes of sharp reversals of net capital flows, on the other hand, are mostly associated with domestic macroeconomic conditions and not necessarily with global factors such as US interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "US Long-Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:06:y:2015:i:02:n:s1793993315500088
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793993315500088
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    1. Gonzalo De Cadenas Santiago & Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca, 2014. "Monetary policy in the North, effects in the South," Working Papers 1429, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; capital inflows; asset prices; sudden-stops; exchange rate regimes; E32; F32; F41; G10; G12; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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